Week 16 in the NFL is feeling … not like Week 16.
Week 16 should be full of playoff intrigue and hard-fought games and the best of the NFL rising to the top. There are three weeks to go! All hands on deck! Man the battle stations!
Instead, we enter Week 16 with more than half of the teams (17 of 32) eliminated from the postseason, with the Cowboys and their 2% shot (per NFL.com) basically being 18.
This is not, I’m sure, the bonus content the NFL had in mind when it switched from a 16-game season to a 17-game season.
As a result, we are basically in Week 18 territory when it comes to this week’s slate of games. By my count, there are eight games — literally half the schedule — that feature at least one team that has nothing to play for. We’ve gotten to the point where even the Cowboys, who still have a whisper of a chance, had to take to the public airwaves to announce Dak Prescott would indeed play football this Sunday.
In short: Be careful out there, fellow bettors, DFS players, pick ‘em compadres, event contract desperados, and everyone else who thinks they know ball.
Are there edges to be found? Always. But they’re going to be a little more hidden than usual. And it’s only Week 16.
So with that … on to Week 16!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
OK, didn’t hit last week, still doesn’t matter, hit one earlier for +2400 and change, I’m happy, you’re happy, and so forth.
This week, I will take at FanDuel the Eagles laying 6.5 on the road in D.C., the Titans outright at home against the Chiefs at +142, the Jaguars outright on the road in Denver at +146, and over 47.5 in the Cards-Falcons game. All told, we’re at +2024.
Rationale: I’ve been betting against the Chiefs all year and will continue to do so here against a newly-scrappy Titans squad and a demoralized K.C. team. As for the other outright upset, the Jags? I think they’re a better team than the Broncos, and that’s the end of that. The Eagles are going to continue their one-week get-right run, and the Cards and Falcons feature two teams with nothing to play for except Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett have a lot to play for, namely their future. This one shoots out.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Up to 8-7 as the Broncos, Pats, and Chargers all did what they had to do last week. This week, at Caesars and at +140, give me those Eagles giving a half-point to the Commanders, and match that with the Lions giving a half-point at home against the Steelers and the Niners giving a half-point on the road at Indy.
It’s a trap!
We’ll call this 8-8, as I had the Bills and Packers as traps against the Pats and Broncos, respectively. This week, my trappy trap is the Chiefs once again, as 3-point favorites in Tennessee. One team is hungry and playing well, the other is old, injured, and over it. It’s you, Chiefs. You’re the problem. It’s you.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I did not, but I if I played Karl-Anthony Towns instead of Victor Wembanyama in Tuesday’s NBA Cup showdown slate, I would’ve won the whole thing. Alas.
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
J.J. McCarthy to Jordan Addison, $9.8K total, they’re going to 4x that number. Godspeed.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Down to 6-9, had the Seahawks last week laying a billion points. Lesson: Don’t lay points against Philip Rivers. This week, I mean … the Titans +3. I may be drunk.
