Well here we are, the playoffs. And with them, perhaps my most favorite — well, top three favorite, at least — form of gambling on the NFL: Playoff best ball tournaments.
It is probably the most +EV way to bet on the playoffs, as there are still a ton of people who enter these drafts on Underdog and DraftKings who have no idea what they’re doing.
In a nutshell: You draft 10 (Underdog) or 12 (DraftKings) players. The best scoring players at the positions on your team (QB, RB, two WR, a TE in DraftKings, and a flex in both) are counted.
It is not cumulative — each week resets the scoreboard. Depending on the tournament, you’re competing against five other teams to start and either one or two of the teams will advance to the next round.
The trick: As your players are eliminated, your roster shrinks. Conversely, if you draft a lot of Seahawks and/or Broncos — who don’t play this weekend — you’ll have a tougher time getting out of the first round.
The big mistake people make? Over and over and over again, especially in the low-dollar tourneys where this low-roller resides, they just pick the best plays, ignoring the idea of stacking.
And in playoff best ball, you cannot win — and I can’t stress this enough — you cannot win unless you stack. The goal is to get five (or six) active players to the Super Bowl and the only way to do that is to stack at least one team.
Maybe you load up on the Eagles, they make it all the way, you’ve got Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and they’ve been scoring enough to get you through the three preceding rounds. Or maybe you split it up, have a bunch of Rams, Patriots, and Jaguars, and the Rams and Jags meet up in the Super Bowl.
Bottom line, you absolutely need to stack when drafting if you have any hopes of winning.
The issue? It’s harder to get out of Round 1 without having the best plays. Some schmo who didn’t stack and has no chance of winning, outscores your perfectly stacked team in Round 1 and that’s that.
It’s frustrating.
But if you can get a few teams through and keep doing that … well, it’s one of the best sweats in all of gambling. It’s five weeks of hope. Can’t ask for much more in the dead of winter.
On to the Wild Card round!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
For the year, we had a 39% ROI on this bet, as all it took was one +2400 whopper to cash it in. So that’s nice.
This week, just for fun — and I can’t stress this enough, as trying to navigate a six-game slate and do this bet is a fool’s errand — but just for fun, at FanDuel, give me the Rams laying 10.5, the Eagles laying 4.5, the Packers laying 1.5, and the under 39.5 in the Steelers-Texans tilt.
Rationale: The Rams are obviously the better team. The Panthers got very lucky when they beat these same Rams a few weeks back and come on. This should be a blowout. As for the Eagles and 49ers? It’s a great matchup on both sides of the ball for the Birds. The 49ers defense is both not good and injured, allowing the sputtering Eagles offense room to spread their wings. And I’ll take the Eagles defense against any offense right now. Packers-Bears is a toss-up, but this is more a bet against Caleb Williams than anything else. As for the Texans-Steelers? I mean, I don’t see either offense having much success and I see the clock moving fast in this one.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Just missed this last week, ended up 9-9 on the year, but that’s good for a 20% ROI, as all these bets at Caesars were at +140.
This week and disregarding all the teaser rules, give me the Rams -4.5, the Eagles +1.5, and let’s move the under in the Steelers-Texans to 45.5.
It’s a trap!
Brought the season record to 10-9 as the Panthers covered against the Bucs. Assuming -110 each week, I squeezed out a 0.5% profit, which is better than not, so onward and upward.
This week, the one favorite that scares me the most is the Bills as 1.5-point favorites in Jacksonville. While Josh Allen is probably the most important player in the playoffs, the Jags are also definitely the better team. I think the Jags should be favored here.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Let’s not talk about ROI here, m’kay?
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Instead, I’m going to tell you who not to play: Christian McCaffrey. I don’t think the 49ers will be able to compete with the Eagles and projections have him as the most-owned player — like 40% — across the six-game slate and nearly 60% on the Sunday-only slate. Not fun fading McCaffrey, but it’s very possible he ends up with something like five catches and 80 total yards and that’s that.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Finished at 9-9, for a -4.5% ROI. Sad trombone.
This week, give me the Rams and laying all the points (10.5 in this case).
