Newsmax could become the first news media business to directly offer regulated prediction market contracts, as the conservative cable news channel — which has ties to ForecastEx — applied for membership in the National Futures Association (NFA) last month.
Meanwhile, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Acting Chair Caroline Pham may be back in the world of prediction markets herself. She is listed as the sole principal on an application by her current employer Moonpay, which recently launched prediction market on-ramps for AI agents.
Newsmax applied for NFA membership as an introducing broker under the name “Newsmax Markets LLC” on March 19.
Companies that act as futures commission merchants (FCMs) or introducing brokers (IBs) for CFTC-regulated products must register with the NFA, which means the NFA effectively acts as the licensing body for FCMs and IBs. Both FCMs and IBs allow their customers to purchase CFTC-regulated products such as event contracts, which are traded on a designated contract market (DCM) like Kalshi or Crypto.com. Prominent FCMs in prediction markets include Robinhood and FanDuel Predicts. Prominent IBs include DraftKings Predictions.
The application does not mention what types of NFA-covered products Newsmax Markets wishes to list, but as a media business, prediction markets would appear to be the most likely option.
First media outlet to be predictions broker?
While media outlets have become more involved with prediction markets in recent months, most have focused on displaying odds for readers or viewers, not offering them a direct opportunity to buy or sell contracts. Those that have taken steps to get involved directly have been in the sports or entertainment media business, rather than news, and have not yet offered any CFTC-regulated event contracts.
Sports Illustrated briefly offered prediction markets through a partnership with UK-based Predictor LLC before shuttering its product with a promise to return. Predictor has an active NFA application.
Entertainment news site Hollywood.com announced a partnership with Crypto.com in November 2025, but five months later it does not appear to have actually launched.
Thomas Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers, which owns prediction market ForecastEx, is listed as a principal of Newsmax Markets because he owns an 18% stake in Newsmax, which is estimated to be worth over $6 billion. If Newsmax starts offering prediction markets, Peterffy’s stake may make ForecastEx an obvious partner. Despite being an early mover on prediction markets, ForecastEx currently lags well behind Kalshi for market share.
A Newsmax spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Caroline Pham back?
Also submitting an application on March 19 was Moonpay, which hired former CFTC Chair Pham last year and lists her on its application. Moonpay is applying to be an introducing broker, and the application also lists the business as a prospective “swap firm.”
While NFA membership may also allow Moonpay to offer certain kinds of crypto products, the swap firm designation — for a business not aimed at financial professionals — is typically a tell that a company wants to offer prediction markets.
Pham is the only person named on the Moonpay application, which lists her role as CEO. Pham is the chief legal officer and chief administrative officer for Moonpay, so the CEO designation likely means that she is heading up a new business unit.
In February, MoonPay launched its AI agent software, which allows AI agents such as Codex or Claude Code to make cryptocurrency transactions by using pre-written “skills” to interact with different crypto payments interfaces. Last week, Kalshi and Polymarket were added as skills for Moonpay’s agent software.
Pham led the CFTC from January 2025, when Rostin Behnam stepped down as chair, until December when Michael Selig was confirmed by the Senate. She had been a CFTC commissioner since 2022. By the end of Pham’s time as chair, she had become the only CFTC commissioner due to departure of other commissioners, giving her outsized influence over CFTC policy.
Though Kalshi and Crypto.com had already started offering sports event contracts before Pham became commissioner, much of the rise of the product happened during her time as chair.
In charge of the commodities regulator, Pham took very few active public moves either in support of or opposing prediction markets and sports event contracts, but in practice her passive stance allowed prediction markets to grow. Daily volume at Kalshi, the largest CFTC-regulated prediction market, grew from around $5 million a day in January 2025 to around $200 million a day in December, mostly driven by sports contracts.
Other NFA applications
Daily fantasy sports app Chalkboard also applied for NFA membership on April 6 under the name Red Tailed LLC. It would join Splash, Sleeper, Betr, Underdog, and PrizePicks as daily fantasy sports businesses with NFA approval.
Onyx Odds, which currently offers a free-to-play prediction market game, applied for NFA membership on Feb. 19.
Y Combinator-backed prediction markets trading platform Valence also applied on March 11.
Another recent applicant with ties to ForecastEx is Lumina Markets. Peterffy is again listed as a principal on the application, as is Interactive Brokers Vice Chairman Earl Nemser. Private equity firm Conyers is also listed as a co-owner. Lumina’s website is blank apart from a brief message suggesting a prediction market platform will be “coming soon.” Lumina’s prediction market goals and ties to Interactive Brokers were first reported in February by Business Insider.
