The U.S. Department of Justice has, for what appears to be the first time, charged someone with making insider trades on a prediction market. The accused is a military member who allegedly made more than $400,000 through bets on the raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army soldier, was charged with “unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction” in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, according to a Thursday evening DOJ press release.
The North Carolina resident is charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
The DOJ’s press release says that Van Dyke made $409,881 in profit by betting on multiple Venezuela-related markets on Polymarket ahead of the Jan. 3 raid in which Maduro was captured.
Days after the raid, media reports noted a series of suspicious Polymarket trades about Maduro being removed from power.
‘Participated in planning’
According to the DOJ, Van Dyke “participated in the planning and execution” of the raid.
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York said in the DOJ press release. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.
“Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain. Our Office will continue to hold accountable those who misuse confidential or classified information in a way that undermines and exploits our national security.”
According to the DOJ, Van Dyke “created a Polymarket account, funded it, and began trading on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets,” on or about Dec. 26, 2025. He made around 13 bets over the next month, betting yes on markets like “U.S. Forces in Venezuela … by January 31, 2026,” “Maduro out by … January 31, 2026,” and “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by … January 31.”
Van Dyke bet around $33,034 on these outcomes.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in the DOJ press release. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
U.S. forces captured Maduro in the early hours of Jan. 3, resulting in most of these markets paying out. The invasion market actually resolved to no, due to details in the market rules about what counted as an “invasion.”
“Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain,” FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr said in the press release. “Van Dyke profited more than $400,000 by trading various outcomes related to Venezuela after learning of the operation because of his role as a U.S. Army soldier. The FBI will continue to investigate threats to our nation’s security especially from those entrusted to safeguard sensitive classified information and military operations.”
Caught due to email address
The DOJ claims that after winning the bets, Van Dyke “sent most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account.”
On Jan. 6, after reports of suspicious trading on Maduro-related markets, the DOJ says Van Dyke “asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated.”
“That same day, Van Dyke changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, and which he had created on or about Dec. 14, 2025,” it added.
Trades were on Polymarket’s offshore site
CFTC Chair Michael Selig said in a CFTC press release that anyone who engages in illegal practice under its jurisdiction would face consequences.
“I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law,” Selig said. “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”
The bets were placed on Polymarket’s blockchain-based global site, which is not registered with the CFTC. Users with U.S. IP addresses can access the site, but not trade, though many Americans do trade using VPNs.
The CFTC currently considers the site itself outside of its regulatory reach due to its IP blocking — though it has adopted a stricter stance in the past — but individual trades made by Americans are generally still considered to be a “U.S. nexus” that keeps the trades under U.S. jurisdiction.
The CFTC’s insider trading rules are narrower than those for stock markets. However, a member of the military’s advanced notice of a secret military operation like the Maduro raid would appear to fit squarely into the definition.
President ‘not a fan’
Following the news of trading on the raid, President Trump was critical of prediction markets when asked his thoughts.
“The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said Thursday. “And you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually.”
That appears to be a change of tune from a month ago, when he praised prediction markets for their success in anticipating his 2024 election victory.
More attention on insider trades
The charges are the latest crackdown on insider trading at prediction markets amid heightened concerns about the practice.
On Wednesday, Kalshi fined three politicians and suspended them from its platform after it found that they had bet on their own races. None of the three have been criminally charged so far, and due to the CFTC’s insider trading rules, it is not completely clear whether they actually broke the law or just Kalshi’s rules.
During a hearing before the House Agriculture Committee last week, CFTC Chair Michael Selig was asked a number of questions about the CFTC’s policing of insider trading on prediction markets, as well as the issue of platforms like Polymarket’s offshore site offering contracts on military activity.
