One week ago, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was expected to hold a public roundtable discussion to “develop a robust administrative record with studies, data, expert reports, and public input from a wide variety of stakeholder groups to inform the Commission’s approach to regulation and oversight of prediction markets, including sports-related event contracts.”
It was widely reported in advance that the highly anticipated roundtable was canceled. However, based on a transcript of the proceedings obtained exclusively by InGame, it turns out that the roundtable did actually proceed on April 30 with, apparently, a limited number of participants.
What ensued, based on the transcript presented in full below, may be less than observers, analysts, and investors expected, but it is nevertheless quite revealing.
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ACTING CFTC CHAIRMAN CAROLINE PHAM: To the participants of the Prediction Market Roundtable discussions, we thank you for your interest and contributions today.
The thoughtful conversation we will have here shall serve as evidence that the federal adoption of sports-related event contracts is in no way a foregone conclusion, as many cynics and skeptics out there have proffered. By way of background, when this roundtable was announced on Feb. 5, I issued a statement that contained the following proviso: “This roundtable is a necessary first step in order to establish a holistic regulatory framework that will both foster thriving prediction markets and protect retail customers from binary options fraud such as deceptive and abusive marketing and sales practices.”
We could have, but did not, abruptly cancel this event after stakeholders and experts made arrangements and booked flights to join us here today. That is because we are committed to brandishing this process and this agency with an air of trust and transparency.
Having said all of that, let’s get down to business. I see a hand raised in the back. Yes, sir, please state your name.
DAN WALLACH: It’s Dan Wallach.
PHAM: Mr. Wallach, are you an attorney, or a member of the media, or both? I ask because I have seen your LinkedIn feed, it’s quite active and tends to frame things a certain way, although it’s not clear who, which publication, or which client(s) you are here representing.
WALLACH: It is active, Commissioner Pham, I agree. And I write for Forbes. I represent myself and would like to begin by …
[LOUD CRASH]
Part of the ceiling collapses, and a phalanx of lobbyists for Las Vegas Sands, as well as Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, fall to the ground inches away from Mr. Wallach.
PHAM: Is everyone okay!? Mr. Wallach, why don’t you go clean yourself up?
BAILIFF: We remind all of you that this roundtable here is vital and necessary and will go a long way toward shaping the future of derivatives markets as well as state-level sports betting in the U.S., which may or may not be two different things. And so we ask if any of your colleagues or peers are attempting to infiltrate this session, please urge them to reconsider.
ELON MUSK: (enters the room wielding a chainsaw) Hey, bailiff, tell me five things you did this week! Never mind, you’re fired. There’s a new sheriff in town and he’s jacked up on ketamine. That is me, by the way. I wear many hats and people like my jokes, because they are appropriate and timely.
[Bailiff exits the room]
PHAM: Mr. Musk, I did not expect you in attendance here today.
MUSK: Well, I’ve got Donald Jr. on the line. Junior asked me to come down here and shut this thing down. I do have a busy day of posting sick memes on ‘X,’ but I am always available to kneecap federal agencies, so here I am.
PHAM: OK. Will you do all of us a favor and ask Donald Jr. what his role as “strategic adviser” over at Kalshi consists of? What does he … do?
MUSK: This. Literally this, he promotes meme coins and wields influence. His actual role is about as prominent as his chin.
MLB COMMISSIONER ROB MANFRED: Acting Chairman Pham, if I may. I am the commissioner of Major League Baseball and we are a very serious and very important organization.
PHAM: I understand that. However, some combination of the White House and DOGE may have put the kibosh on this whole thing.
MANFRED: Be that as it may, I’m just going to keep talking. The sports event contracts that exchanges have recently offered resemble sports betting —
SPORTTRADE CEO ALEX KANE: You could say resemble. But the reality is, sports event contracts are functionally the same as sports betting. You’re not going to hear me say this isn’t sports betting. That’s a ridiculous comment.
MANFRED: Well, I’m still going to speak both languages. The limited MLB event contracts available today do not carry the same integrity risks as prop bets or even single-game bets, but we expect that equivalent offerings will arrive soon. As the resemblance between sports event contracts and traditional sports betting markets continues to grow, so too does the need to replicate the integrity and consumer protections that exist at the state level. Currently, those protections are lacking —
KALSHI CO-FOUNDER AND CEO TAREK MANSOUR: You know what’s lacking? A source of truth. Prediction markets are just that: quintessential truth machines pumping out little truth nuggets in real time for all the discerning, brilliant traders on Robinhood and Kalshi looking to hedge their risk from, for example, an end-of-regulation layup attempt by Knicks star Jalen Brunson.
FORMER CFTC COMMISSIONER BRIAN QUINTENZ: You want the truth? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!
PHAM: Brian, first of all, you haven’t been confirmed, again, yet. Does anyone know when that is happening? Second, wrong ‘90s movie. That’s A Few Good Men, and you were supposed to bust down the door and start into Pacino from Any Given Sunday as in your ErisX statement.
QUINTENZ: Crap, right. I’ll go back to the door, then re-enter when I find the right moment, OK?
PHAM: Brian, you’re already here and the moment has passed. Just go into the Pacino thing.
QUINTENZ: Fine! Fine! Now I’m frazzled. Fine. (Clears throat.) I don’t know what to say, really. Three minutes till the biggest battle of our professional lives all comes down to today. Now either we heal as a team or we’re gonna crumble, inch by inch, play by play, ’til we’re finished.
MANSOUR: YES!!! YES!!
NBA COMMISSIONER ADAM SILVER: (stands and buttons his jacket) Ladies and gentlemen, I just want to state for the record my agreement with Commissioner Manfred and Major League Baseball. You know, without the state regulators and some robust integrity monitoring services in place, we may not have caught Jontay Porter and his associates attempting to undermine our league, or at least it would have taken much longer and inflicted more damage to public confidence in the integrity of our games.
JONTAY PORTER: (nods deeply and slowly.)
MANSOUR: If Commissioner Silver is getting an opportunity to set the record straight, well, here’s another truth nugget for everyone: Kalshi is now working with IC360, the same firm that has partnered with MLB for integrity monitoring purposes. And furthermore, we are required as a Designated Contract Market to adhere to 23 Core Principles that cover everything from compliance to antitrust. So I don’t want to hear any of these accusations that we’re in some gray market or unregulated space.
CONFERENCE CHAIRMAN FOR THE INDIAN GAMING ASSOCIATION VICTOR ROCHA: (shouting) I’ll give you one for the record, OK? This is obviously a total sham! This whole thing, shambolic!! I mean, come on, among other things, these sports contracts violate public policy. They are contrary to the public interest! They constitute Class III Gaming under IGRA. Why are we not talking about any of that!!? Instead we have Sands lobbyists nobody asked for, about four different commissioners engaging in semantics, and now we’re not even nailing the movie quotes?
I’ve seen enough. I got a quote for you, too: “I must have heard hundreds of you rodents make the same claim. Each one has tasted the end of my sword.” That’s from Blade, by the way. I’m out of here.
MANSOUR: Go check the scoreboard on those preliminary injunctions, Mr. Rocha. It’s 2-0.
ROCHA: Early days, my friend. We will smother you in the crib, and we never forget.
MANSOUR: I like that one. Which movie?
ROCHA: No movie, just a dark threat. You can use it, though.
AGA GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS VP CHRIS CYLKE: You know what, I’m glad I didn’t have to travel far for this. Please refer to our written statement. I’m out.
PHAM: It’s official now, I just received a Signal chat from the White House. This roundtable is adjourned.
[Everyone files out]
QUINTENZ: SERENITY NOW!!!
