Google will allow ads for prediction markets in the U.S., but will exclude Nevada and require that advertisers be registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or National Futures Association (NFA).
In a message sent to advertisers Monday, Google Ads said it is “updating its advertising policy to allow ads for Prediction Markets” in the U.S.
Google Ads covers advertising in Google search results and on YouTube and its network of millions of “partner websites.” It can be a major acquisition channel for sportsbooks and online casinos.
Although there had not been a policy to cover prediction market advertising before, prediction market Kalshi appears to already advertise in Google’s U.S. search results.
The policy defines prediction markets as “platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events.”
Nevada excluded
Notably, the policy will exclude Nevada, where a federal judge allowed the state to enforce cease-and-desist letters against Crypto.com and Kalshi by denying the two prediction markets injunctions to keep operating. Crypto.com agreed to shut down in the state, while Kalshi seeks a stay from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
A judge in Maryland also denied Kalshi an injunction, but Google’s policy appears to still permit prediction market ads in that state.
The policy says that eligibility is “strictly limited to” CFTC-registered designated contract markets (DCMs), such as Kalshi, or companies authorized by the National Futures Association to act as brokers, such as Robinhood, which is registered as a futures commission merchant (FCM), or Fanatics and DraftKings, which are both introducing brokers (IBs).
Companies acting as a technology service provider like Underdog, those offering “tokenized predictions” like Jupiter, or those not registered to operate in the U.S. like Polymarket’s global site do not appear to be eligible to run ads.
“Advertisers must also complete Google’s certification process to run ads targeting the U.S. market,” the policy continues. “All ads, products, and landing pages must comply with all local laws, financial regulations, industry standards, and all other Google Ads Policies.”
Rules take effect Jan. 21
The new rules will take effect on Jan. 21 and advertisers will be able to apply for certification on that date.
In November, Google Finance announced that it will integrate prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket into its new AI-powered platform.
According to a Google press release, consumers will be able to type questions like, “What will GDP growth be for 2025?” into the search bar to get a look at current and historical probabilities.
