PITTSBURGH — I have just one question for the tens of thousands of people descending upon my hometown for the NFL Draft this Thursday-Saturday: Who are you people?
Wait, sorry, more questions: Why, really, are you coming here? What do you expect to get out of it that you can’t get in front of your TV at home?
Unlike tens of millions of Americans content to get news of their favorite football team’s picks from ESPN, ABC, or the NFL Network — focusing on it for perhaps an hour total instead of consuming three days to keep track of seven rounds of choices they mostly don’t care about — an estimated 200,000 or more individuals per day will gather at the confluence of Pittsburgh’s three rivers for what has become an ungodly spectacle of ubiquitous fan football jerseys, hugs on stage of gigantic men, and, of course, booing of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.
Those people are not coming to gamble on the draft, mind you. Despite it being the offseason highlight of a sport that attracts more wagers than any other, no attendee can make a legal sportsbook bet while here. While Pennsylvania is a major sports betting state — including a Rivers Casino retail sportsbook located a short walk from the draft stage outside Acrisure Stadium, in addition to all of the usual mobile betting apps — it is among about one-fourth of legal sports betting states that prohibit draft betting. We like our gambling here focused on what takes place on the field, thank you.
While many attendees will be citizens of Steelers Nation who bleed black and gold, a multitude will make overnight stays after traveling in by car, plane, or boat (but not train, as Amtrak service to Pittsburgh is, in an asterisked word, s****y). It is being described as the biggest event the city has hosted in its 268-year history — bigger than the Whiskey Rebellion or the celebrated if quizzical annual Picklesburgh Festival. Yes, even bigger than the big Anthrocon convention of furries held here every summer for reasons understood only by people dressed in heavy suits as raccoons and otters at height of July heat and humidity.
For this, Pittsburghers have cleaned up all we can in recent months so as to make a good appearance for this week’s visitors and TV draft analysts. A sensitive sort, we are well aware of the still-sooty image with which some regard us despite all the efforts of HBO’s The Pitt to suggest we are defined more now by grotesque, bloody injuries than smokestacks. So litter has been removed (mostly) from the main highway between the airport and downtown. Abandoned cars have been towed from city streets. Vacant storefronts in a downtown forever feeling Covid aftereffects have been filled in or covered over.
Come Sunday, it will all go back to the way it ever was, but no need to worry about that now.
And with the 216th pick … yawn
To be clear, I am both a lifelong sports fan and Steelers fan, and I just don’t get this draft hullabaloo. Nor does anyone else I know. Not a single acquaintance plans to travel even just a few miles to navigate around the many closed-off streets, put up with the security precautions, fight the massive crowds, and pay the exorbitant parking fees. (Rivers Casino, not missing a beat, will let you use its garage for three days for a mere $500.)
All this to hear 257 names announced? If you’re familiar with anywhere close to 57 of them and your name isn’t Adam Schefter or Mel Kiper Jr., you’re probably in need of serious help, and not of the draft advice kind.
It wasn’t always like this, especially not the last time the draft was held in Pittsburgh. That was 1947, when the Art Rooneys, George Halases, and Curly Lambeaus of the world gathered quietly in a downtown hotel to make selections. It was so quiet that they didn’t even publicize their picks, as they didn’t want the rival All-American Football Conference to catch wind and try to pursue the same players.
Most years thereafter, the draft was held in New York City with only modestly more fanfare. Then ESPN started televising the damned thing in 1980, because it needed to show something, anything, back in its early days. That made eventual stars of draft “experts” like Kiper as attention grew. The NFL sensed a PR opportunity in moving it to other cities, with Chicago the first in 2015. A football-crazed nation in need of … of … of what, someone counting down a clock every 10 minutes? … began taking to it like a betting newcomer takes to a longshot parlay’s odds boost.
Amateur analysts multiplied out the wazoo.
“Hey, Joe, who you think the Vikings should take in the first round?“
“Edge rusher. Need an edge rusher.“
“Guy on ESPN said it’s a deep draft for those. Said get the speedy wide receiver out of Florida State first.“
“Ahhh, he had a theft and DUI in college. He’s a head case.“
“You can name a good receiver who isn’t?“
So before you knew it, the NFL joined ESPN in promoting the hell out of the event, motivating these draftniknuts to attend in person. Hundreds of thousands showed up for draft shows in Nashville, Kansas City, and elsewhere. A record number of 775,000 was reported over three days in Detroit in 2024. Last year, even little Green Bay — bigger than Altoona and Johnstown, sure, but not wayyyyy bigger — was said to have drawn 600,000.
Pittsburgh city proper actually has far fewer residents now than it did during that last go-around in 1947, so attracting 200,000-plus outsiders per day would nearly double the city’s population for three days. Where will they all stay? Where will they all go? Will they understand the local “yinzer” dialect? No one knows for sure. But if within three days they can figure out the Byzantine local road system among the hills, bridges, tunnels, and rivers, I hope one will stop and take time to explain it to me.
Plenty to bet on in most states
I am suddenly reminded that InGame exists to devote attention to the sports betting industry, so let’s say something more about that in relation to the draft. That’s a nod, at least, to those in the 30 or so states where legal wagers can be placed on this football talent show. (No need to feel sorry for Pennsylvanians, as we still have the option this week of betting on the Volvo China Open, where I like Japanese golfer Kota Kaneko to finish top 10 at +400 at DraftKings.)
In other states, DraftKings will get a lot more action on the draft than on the DP World Tour. Few will be betting on the first player taken, however, as the site’s -20000 odds on Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza to be the Las Vegas Raiders’ pick are a bit, what, intimidating? Nonsensical?
But it gets interesting after that for the New York Jets’ pick at No. 2, with Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese (-145 at one point Wednesday) and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey (+110) jockeying with one another in recent days as betting favorites.
And there are all kinds of other options, like betting what position a team will fill with its first pick. The Steelers, for example, are -105 to take an offensive lineman and +200 to take a wide receiver. The vote here is for the lineman, just because it would be fun to hear someone on national television trying to pronounce the name of the most likely candidate, Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane.
DraftKings has markets as well on things like which team will draft quarterback Carson Beck (Miami Dolphins have shortest odds at +300) and whether the number of QBs taken in the first round is over or under 1.5 (-320 on over, +225 on under).
As it’s America, after all, you can bet on just about anything, and if you can’t do it legally with a sportsbook, you can find it on a prediction market. In fact, this might be one time where the sportsbooks would be happy if you opt for the latter.
According to a Yahoo Sports article by Ben Fawkes, the operators typically lose money on the draft because they are outsmarted by sharps who study the outflow of pre-draft information from teams and analysts religiously. The sportsbooks can’t keep up, and skilled bettors take advantage of their stale odds.
“Dealing with any draft market really, for most places, it’s not a matter of whether you win or lose, it’s just a question of how much you lose,” said Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, a BetMGM book in Atlantic City.
Me, I won’t be winning or losing anything on this draft taking place a 10-minute drive from my home. Nor will I be anywhere near it. Like any sane football fan, I will be parked in front of the TV as the Steelers get to the 21st pick. Mainly, I will be hoping to get a chuckle out of someone’s attempt to pronounce Olaivavega. Or Ioane. Either one will do.
