InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
NFL kickers and their deep-striking so-called K-balls are becoming a factor that sportsbooks have to consider.
Jacksonville kicker Cam Little on Sunday set the NFL record with a 68-yard blast against Las Vegas, and while his overtime winner against the underdog Raiders didn’t quake the sports betting universe, it was yet another example of how these special balls, which are given to teams for conditioning and preparation during the practice week, are helping teams find points where they never seemed possible.
“I think it goes into every market really,” Useloff said. “How many points more in a game is this being accounted for? Probably not more than half a point or a full point, but in these high-leverage, end-of-game scenarios, I can tell you as a trader, that’s certainly something that me and my team are thinking about, when it comes to which kickers are really good in these long distance kicks, and how comfortable these special teams coordinators and head coaches feel in some of these field goals that we used to think of as long shots now being much more comfortable.”
The comfort zone was within 50 yards a decade ago, but upward of 63 is viewed as attainable now. Five kicks of longer than 60 yards have been made this year, including a 65-yarder by Tampa Bay’s Chase McLaughlin.
This makes end-of-drive “Lightning Bets” on made field goals more valuable, too, Useloff said.
“This is also going into these coaching decisions, end of half, you now have to be a lot smarter with the dynamic kickoff of where you’re placing the ball,” he added. “Timeouts come into play a lot more at the end-of-half scenarios. We saw in the Bears and Bengals game yesterday, obviously these high-flying and potent offenses, they only have to get now 30, 35 yards to get into field goal range for some of these really top notch kickers.
Pay the Bills
Buffalo (6-2) stunningly entered its latest playoff practice date with Kansas City (5-4) as a 2-point home underdog on Sunday, providing a serious value proposition for bettors, Useloff said after a 28-21 win.
“There was a lot of [same game parlay] money on them, a lot of parlay money in general on them,” he said. “They were dogs, and whenever you see a team, really, in a game like this, any plus money is going to be one that garners a lot of action, just given the fact that you can get a higher return in a pretty-close-to-pick-em game.
“I think some folks were also pretty enamored by the fact that the Bills were dogs at home, which is rather rare for a team of that caliber. And … the Bills had the better record.”
Go, West!
The NFC West continues to be a massive value proposition, with Seattle and Los Angeles at 6-2 and San Francisco at 6-3.
The Seahawks will meet last-place Arizona (2-5) as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday, attempting to sweep the season series, while the Rams visit the 49ers.
“The NFC West, I think, is a tough one to make sense of because I think the Rams have looked like the best team at points,” Useloff said. “Seattle, though, is in first place because of a tiebreak.
“But again, this [49ers] team, every single game has been 11 points or closer. Every loss they’ve had has come really in a competitive game in the Jags, the Bucs, and the Texans games. They continue to string together these really gutty performances.
“And they have that Rams game coming up Sunday afternoon. That’s going to be a massive one. The winner of that one is going to feel really good about how they’re going to fare in the division, especially given the Niners have that Seahawks win [in Week 1]. I think that game is going to be one you want to circle, with the Rams being 3.5-point favorites in large part due to all those Niners injuries.”
