You like horror movies? If so, here’s a trailer for the scariest movie of the year:
In a world … where every snap feels like destiny … one week stands above the rest. Not Week 1. Not Week 17. But Week … 2.
The most dangerous week of the NFL season.
It’s when we take what happened in Week 1 … and overreact. Or underreact.
Where legends are crowned … and busts are buried … all before the leaves even change.
The truth? Very few of us are disciplined enough … to properly react.
This fall … chaos is coming.
Here’s an example of what I’m talking about: This is a week when no one in their right mind would ever bet on the Dolphins, play Dolphins in their DFS lineups, utter the word “Dolphins.” They looked beyond lost on offense, and they became, per ESPN, the first team since 1977 to allow points on every single opponent drive since 1977!
Miami head coach Mike McDaniel was not born until six years later.
O.J. Simpson was still on the Buffalo Bills in 1977.
The Bee Gees released “Stayin’ Alive” on Dec. 13, 1977 — two weeks before Charlie Chaplin died.
To be clear: Charlie Chaplin was still alive the previous time an NFL team scored on every possession.
So yeah. The Dolphins are the ultimate stayaway this week.
They are also 1.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the betting waters … it’s Week 2.
Enough with the trailers. On to the feature presentation.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Last week, I dudded out, missing three of the four legs, so ha-ha. Doesn’t matter. Just really need to hit two of these over the course of the season to be a winner.
So with that in mind, I put this together for +1175 at FanDuel: under 49.5 in Bengals-Jaguars, under 46.5 in Jets-Bills, over 40.5 in 49ers-Saints, and the Cardinals giving 6.5 points at home to the Panthers.
Rationale: The Jaguars want to dink and dunk on offense, and the Bengals defense will be more than willing to allow that to happen. Unless there’s big plays, this game is going under. Jets-Bills offers a similar situation. Buffalo is always a bend-don’t-break defense, and New York wants to just run the ball. Again: If the defenses prevent big plays, this game is going under.
As for my one over? The Saints got off 69 plays last week, the 49ers 72. Kellen Moore, the new head coach for New Orleans, let Spencer Rattler throw the ball 46 times. I don’t care that Mac Jones will be behind center for a depleted Niners offense; Kyle Shanahan isn’t changing a thing. This game is going to fly over the total.
And the Cards giving 6.5 points, at home, to Bryce Young? All day, every day.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Hey, I’m 1-0 here, as the Commanders, Cardinals, and Broncos all did what they had to do last week to bring home what I called the most obvious teaser in history.
This week, at +140 at Caesars, I’m bringing the Cards back, giving a half-point at home to the Panthers, and adding — with some hesitation — the Ravens giving 5.5 points to the Browns at home and the Lions giving the Bears a half-point at home.
Prediction market play of the week
I’m fading Taylor Swift to play the halftime show at what Kalshi is calling the “Pro Football Championship Halftime Show.” (Crazy that Kalshi can offer sports betting — er, event contracts — on sports, but heaven forbid its editorial team types the words “Super Bowl.”)
Anyway, Tay-Tay is 51 cents on the “yes” and, if you ask me, that’s too high. Post Malone is at 20 cents, and Metallica is at 13 cents, which is a darkhorse candidate I love as the band has (A) expressed interest in playing since the game will be in their stomping grounds of northern California, and (B) It’s freaking Metallica. (BTW, I know things have slipped a bit in Russia over the last three decades, but check out this Moscow performance from 1991. Can you imagine how insane it must’ve been to be in that audience?)
It’s a trap!
Thought the Niners were a trap last week, I was almost right. Alas. This week’s trap? I mean, it has to be — I can’t believe I’m saying it — the Dolphins, right? There seems to be no way this team rights the ship. And they’re favorites? Over a disciplined Patriots squad? I can’t see it. But again: It’s Week 2, and I’m an idiot.
Will I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
No, and I didn’t win the FanDuel Milly Maker either, though I did get $425 back in credits for not cashing 83 times in the $5, which means I get to plow all that money back into FanDuel this week, so maybe I will win a million dollars. (Narrator: BWAHAHAHAHA!)
DraftKings DFS play of the week
I’ll congratulate myself for hyping Bucs wide receiver Emeka Egbuka here last week, as his 4-67-2 at $4600 certainly qualifies as a hit.
This week, I’m going with someone I expect no one to play: running back James Conner of the Cardinals at $6600. The narrative is that teammate Trey Benson saw a lot more work than expected, and that’s true, but as Rich Hribar pointed out on Rotogrinders’ Pick 6 show, all of Benson’s touches came between the 20s. Conner got all the looks in the red zone and was in for all obvious passing downs. Add in the near-touchdown home favorite status against the Panthers, a team that just got run over by Travis Etienne Jr., and Conner looks like a smash.
Mortal lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Squeezed out a win by the skin of my teeth last week, taking the Jets and 2.5 points at home. This week, well, no surprise if you’ve made it this far: Cardinals giving 6.5 points at home to the Panthers.
