Polymarket vs. PredictIt

In this InGame Polymarket vs. PredictIt comparison article, you will find a clear side-by-side look at Polymarket vs PredictIt; how they differ on usability, fees, regulation, liquidity, and community.  

If you’ve ever wondered which prediction market is larger and more profitable, Polymarket or PredictIt, this article will break it down for you. While the two sites allow you to trade on the outcomes of live events, they take very different approaches. 

Polymarket utilizes blockchain technology and allows cryptocurrency trading for fast, decentralized trades. PredictIt is licensed by the CFTC and operates in a regulated environment based on traditional payments only.

I will discuss what type of markets you can expect from each platform, and which of the two gives you the best potential advantage to profit from your trades. 

Whether you are just starting out with prediction markets or getting ready to fine-tune your strategy, this article provides a breakdown so that you know which platform is right for you.

Polymarket vs PredictIt comparison

When you look at Polymarket vs PredictIt side by side, you’ll see some distinct differences. The table below is a head-to-head summary of the two platforms to give you a quick idea of the main differences between the two.

In the following sections, I’ll look into each of these parameters so that you understand the differences and what they mean in practice.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market built on Ethereum and was founded in 2020. It utilizes the Web3 technology (namely the Polygon chain) to enable people to place predictions on the outcomes of everything from crypto price moves to political issues to pop culture and sports events. There are a tremendous number of possible markets, so you’re sure to find something that interests you.

I didn’t see any significant Polymarket “welcome bonus” in the traditional sense, such as “deposit $X, get $Y free.” Instead, the platform’s value comes from its broad range of markets and the speed at which new events are posted. 

Whether it’s politics, sports, pop culture, or crypto events, the appeal lies in the variety and accessibility rather than promotional offers. 

The absence of a bonus isn’t a drawback; it reflects the nature and professionalism of the platform, where value is earned through understanding market mechanics, liquidity, and timing, rather than through upfront incentives. 

Traders are rewarded for engaging with the markets strategically, making Polymarket a platform focused on execution and opportunity rather than gimmicks.

What is PredictIt?

PredictIt launched in 2014 as one of the first prediction markets in the United States. It was created as a vehicle for political research and forecasting. On PredictIt, you can buy and sell shares in yes/no questions (and occasionally multi-outcome questions) about topics ranging from US elections, control of Congress, and decisions on legislation. 

Each share pays $1 if the outcome you selected occurs, and $0 if it doesn’t. Historically, PredictIt has operated under a “no-action” letter from the CFTC, allowing it to operate as a regulated research market.

I found that PredictIt does not provide standard welcome bonuses or promo codes. You register, make a deposit, and then you can begin to trade, with the benefit being derived from the structure and transparency of the markets rather than from any promotional benefits. 

PredictIt was designed to provide a fair and regulated trading experience regarding political and public-affairs events, with success arising as much from strategy, timing, and understanding of the market rather than from a monetary incentive in the way of cashback bonuses or sign-up rewards.

How prediction markets work

Prediction markets work by allowing participants to trade contracts on the likelihood of future events. In order to fully grasp how Polymarket and PredictIt differ, it helps to first see how prediction markets operate, how they differ from traditional sportsbooks, and what mechanisms drive them.

Trading contracts and pricing

Prediction markets allow you to buy and sell contracts that depend on the outcome of a future event; for instance, “Will inflation be greater than 5% in Q4?” If a contract trades for $0.60, that price reflects the market’s collective belief that there is a 60% chance of that event happening. If the event happens, the contract pays $1; if it does not, it pays $0. 

Unlike a sportsbook, where a bookmaker sets the odds, a prediction market derives all of its price from user-to-user trading and price discovery that comes directly from the crowd.

The majority of contracts function on a binary basis, which means that when you purchase “Yes” shares at the current price, an event will either resolve as true and you will receive $1 per share, or resolve as false and you will receive nothing. 

Some platforms also have multi-outcome markets, where multiple potential outcomes can be traded. 

The current share price reflects the implied probability of that outcome happening. When an event resolves, the payouts are paid out automatically, depending on the platform’s rules. On PredictIt, for example, “Yes” shares pay $1 if the outcome is correct and $0 if it isn’t.

Liquidity and execution

Liquidity is a major factor when it comes to how efficiently all of these markets work. If you have few traders willing to take the opposite position, you will most likely face wide spreads or find it difficult to be filled at the price you want. 

Larger orders can lead to slippage (when your trade moves the price against you), a common occurrence in small or lower-volume markets. Some exchanges use automated market makers to improve liquidity, while other exchanges may depend solely on a user-filled order book. 

When liquidity is thin, prices are not a reliable reflection of true market sentiment.

Fund handling and platform mechanics

Another major difference between the two types of platforms is how funds are managed. On crypto-based platforms like Polymarket, you’ll need to open a digital wallet and use stablecoins like USDC to trade. 

Unfortunately, when using any sort of blockchain, there are usually small network (or gas) fees to process trades. 

On traditional platforms like PredictIt, clients deposit and withdraw using methods like ACH bank transfers or credit cards. Many platforms also require you to verify your identity when depositing, as well as when withdrawing. There is often a delay for withdrawals too. 

All of these operational features including speed of payment processing and regulatory burden impact your ability to access or move your money.

How do Polymarket and PredictIt compare on sports-focused markets

When looking at how Polymarket and PredictIt compare on sports-focused markets, given that many people are interested in trading on sports or prop-style events, it is worth examining how both the exchanges tap into this vertical. 

Polymarket offers a wide range of markets outside of politics, with contracts offered on sports, economics, and pop culture events. Markets are listed fairly quickly, especially around major news events or championships, and the decentralized nature of Polymarket allows you to trade on the outcome of whether or not a team will win the title, as well as the statistical outcomes of players. Most money flows into the market during major events, which allows liquidity and tighter spreads.

Because of its global reach, Polymarket gives you access to niche props that are not always available on traditional sportsbooks. This variety can be a great selling point for those seeking markets beyond the mainstream.

Like many platforms, the liquidity surrounding playoffs, finals and international tournaments like the World Cup is always heavier, while niche areas of athletes and props evade the traditional liquidity expected. 

PredictIt, on the other hand, does not allow or offer trading in sports at all. The platform is focused exclusively on politics and public affairs. 

Polymarket vs. PredictIt bonuses and promotions

Looking at bonuses, promotions, and signup incentives, I found that neither platform has incentive models and promotions at the heart of their design. 

PredictIt does not offer a deposit bonus, promo codes, or a referral program; its value lies in the way it is structured and its transparency. 

When assessing PredictIt, it is much smarter to focus on trading limits, spreads, and general liquidity than it is to try and locate short-term offers. 

Polymarket is not much different in this respect; there aren’t any typical “free bet” or “signup” types of bonuses like a sportsbook. 

The value of Polymarket comes from varying market access, speed, and execution. Just check wallet setup costs, transaction costs, and gas fees before you start. 

For both platforms, the real value lies in how well you can trade efficiently, not the one-time offers.

Polymarket vs. PredictIt banking options

When I checked access, payments and verification, I saw there was a notable difference in access and payment methods between the two sites. Polymarket which is on blockchain, has often been unavailable to citizens in the US because of regulatory issues. 

Outside of the US, access is usually widespread, although local laws still apply, and KYC (Know Your Customer) checks also take place. PredictIt was built with US traders in mind and requires identification and a linked US bank account.

Geolocation checks, KYC, and AML (Anti Money Laundering) verification are required of both sites. PredictIt allows you to both deposit via ACH or debit/credit card, but withdrawals have to pay a processing fee of 5% and profits incur a fee of 10%. Also, there’s a 30-day hold on deposits before you can withdraw, as well as deposit and contract limits.

Polymarket uses USDC or another stablecoin, so you will need a compatible cryptocurrency wallet, such as MetaMask. You may pay gas fees or bridge fees when moving funds, and your funds remain under your control until you withdraw. 

The settlement process takes place automatically when the market closes, but accessing it depends on converting cryptocurrency into fiat currency, which may cause a delay in you receiving your funds. 

Both markets require identity verification to operate. PredictIt’s verification process is attached to your banking, whereas Polymarket’s identity verification is based on your crypto wallet and the laws of your jurisdiction.

Polymarket vs. PredictIt customer support

When I looked at trust, rules, and support when comparing these two platforms, it was clear that trust and governance became key factors. PredictIt operates under a no-action letter from the CFTC, which provides it with limited oversight by federal regulators but recognition as a market for research purposes. 

On the other hand, although Polymarket is powered by blockchain technology, which otherwise provides visibility in how trades and settlements occur, it has had a history of pushback from regulators, and in the past they have not allowed US citizens to participate.

Each platform clearly lays out the rules of its respective market. PredictIt’s framework has a very simple structure. Essentially, “Yes” shares will pay $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not occur. 

Polymarket employs decentralized oracle networks (DON’s), that play a crucial role in bridging the gap between blockchain smart contracts and real-world data, to validate the outcome of each market, which allows for transparency, but adds technical complexity. 

PredictIt has email and FAQ support, but response times can be a bit slow. Polymarket also has their own support channels, but depending on your crypto familiarity, you might be on your own with wallet issues or issues downstream of the transaction process. 

In any scenario, on both platforms, I would recommend reading the resolution criteria of each market, and how they will resolve halts or disputes prior to trading.

Fees, limits, and real-world costs

Fees, limits, and real-world costs are important to understand before you start trading. PredictIt takes a 10% cut of your profits, and when you withdraw your money, there’s a 5% withdrawal fee. For instance, if you earn $10 in profits, you’ll end up with around $9 after the fee is taken out and each time you withdraw, you’ll lose even more. PredictIt also regulates your trade size and exposure per market which, although limiting your risk, it also limits your profit, and is inherently built into its model.

Polymarket has no direct trading fees, but relies on costs incurred in the market place through spreads, slippage, and gas fees. The thinner the liquidity, the worse the price you may need to accept in order to get filled. There is not a fixed number of contracts you can trade but your exposure is limited based on your wallet balance and market depth. If you plan to payout to fiat, you will also need to plan for conversion costs and timing.

Polymarket vs. PredictIt Conclusion

Deciding which platform is best for you and why is important. If you live in the US, and want to trade with dollars and primarily trade on politics or current events, then you are likely to prefer PredictIt. It is regulated, straightforward, and designed for fiat users who value clarity and compliance. The downside to using PredictIt is that you will have fewer markets and higher fees.

If you reside outside the US, or are good with cryptocurrencies, then you will have much more variety with your markets using Polymarket. You can trade on sports, international politics, or any cultural event. The downside to using Polymarket is that you will need to manage your wallet, pay gas fees, and there are sometimes issues with liquidity. However, the upside is that you will have flexibility and a much more extensive set of markets to trade on. Both Polymarket and PredictIt have their respective advantages – it really comes down to what you value more. 

If you want to play it safe in a straightforward and regulated environment focusing on the US, you should use PredictIt. If you want freedom, fast speeds and a wider variety of markets, Polymarket would be more suitable.