InGame consults with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in such outlets as ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
Missouri residents eager to bet actual cash money on the National Football League playoffs may want to study up on a new team, pronto.
Sure, when legal retail and mobile sports betting begins there on Dec. 1 — in time for the Giants-Patriots Monday Night Football game that concludes Week 13 — the locally beloved Kansas City Chiefs will have five regular season games remaining. But their Thanksgiving Day visit to the Dallas Cowboys might have already determined if they have any better chance of reaching the playoffs — for what would be the 11th straight time — than the defunct St. Louis Rams.
After falling to the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos, 22-19, on Sunday, the Chiefs are 5-5 and 3.5 games off the division lead. They’re currently ninth in conference seeding, behind the 5-5 Texans and a game behind a Jaguars team coming off a 35-6 romp of the Chargers (7-4). NFL.com’s algorithm pegs Kansas City with a 51% chance to make the playoffs, which is heartening since Houston is assessed at 33%.
But there’s a lot that’s not heartening. Right behind the Chiefs as the 10th seed is a Baltimore Ravens team given a 77% chance.
Oh, and the three teams holding wild cards — the Bills, Chargers, and Jags — have all beaten Kansas City this year to secure a crucial tiebreaker.
“The Chiefs are now a team on the outside looking in,” Useloff said. “Their remaining schedule is on the tougher side. They’re the 12th-hardest remaining schedule with the Broncos, Colts, and the Chargers. The Broncos are kind of overtaking the Chiefs from last year in terms of winning all of these close games in late situations.
“The Broncos have the 12th-easiest remaining schedule in terms of strength. They’ve got the Commanders, the Raiders. It’s not the most daunting schedule. So the Broncos to win their division is feeling ever more likely.”
The price: -280.
Kingdom crumble benefits sportsbook kingdom
Winning two of the past three Super Bowls and winning the AFC again last year before falling to Philadelphia in the championship game made the Chiefs popular fodder for before-the-season division, conference, and championship futures.
A playoff miss would therefore be lucrative for sportsbooks — except ones in Missouri.
The Chiefs still have the second most bets to win the Super Bowl at Fanatics, and, Useloff said, “if they were to win the Super Bowl, this would be the fifth-most expensive result in terms of money running through them right now.”
The Chiefs could turn bet slips into burnt ends in many ways.
“Some people might parlay that with Ohio State to win the national championship or something like that,” Useloff said.
Stafford MVP odds shorten
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matt Stafford’s aggravated disc injury was so bad this summer that he needed an epidural and the entire preseason to mend.
He mended.
With a 22-19 win over Seattle on Sunday, Stafford has become the clear Most Valuable Player favorite at Fanatics at +150. New England quarterback Drake Maye is closest at +200.
“With that divisional showdown now, the Rams control their divisional destiny. The ability to host a playoff game is ever more important when it comes to an award like that,” Useloff said. “They’re also sitting 8-2 after 11 weeks of play. Though Stafford maybe didn’t have the flashy stat line you’d expect — just over 50% pass completion, 130 yards, two touchdowns — he was effective. He didn’t take any sacks. He was able to lead his team to victory. And three separate touchdown drives, which ended up being the difference.”
McCaffrey Bowl could be Week 12 shocker
Carolina going to Santa Clara and beating the San Francisco 49ers would be a massive upset. But it’s in play. And the sometimes feisty Panthers have a strong chance as the underdog to cover what’s currently a 7-point spread.
“This Panthers team has been really, really hit-or-miss this season,” Useloff said of the 6-5 team. “It’s tough to figure out exactly which team you’re going to find every week. They were able to hold off the Falcons in overtime Sunday, but they only put up 7 points to a pretty putrid Saints team the week prior. Got blown out by the Bills a few weeks before. It’s tough to figure out what this Panthers team is able to do when they can dominate the run game and establish that facet of their offense.
“If the Panthers are able to get ahead in this game and then start to churn the clock away, the Niners could find themselves in a tough position with a weakened defense due to injury.”
