NFL Lookahead: Re-Handicapping The Super Bowl Field, Wild Card Games

InGame is consulting with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.

Have a feeling about a Carolina Panthers Super Bowl run? If you do, you’re almost alone. But feel free to grab the NFC South “winner” for +17500 to lift the Lombard Trophy if you’re really inspired.

Seattle, the top-seeded team in the NFC, meanwhile, has engendered far more faith as the +400 favorite to win a second NFL title. The Rams, the Seahawks’ NFC West foe and seemingly destined second-round opponent, is second-favorite at +425.

InGame peruses the inside details and the betting momentum heading into Wild Card Weekend.

AFC

#6 Bills at #3 Jaguars

1 p.m., Sunday, Everbank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida

Betting stat: Buffalo opened as a 1-point favorite on the road. Useloff expects the game to close as a pick ’em.

Buffalo’s legacy as a perennial — albeit not championship-winning — playoff team, the absence of nemesis Kansas City, and the presence of quarterback Josh Allen continues to inspire confidence in bettors against a sneaky-solid Jacksonville team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in three years, but won eight straight games and the AFC South.

Everbank Stadium is the only NFL venue where Allen has never played a regular season or playoff game.

USELOFF: “So far in terms of the action, we’re seeing pretty two-sided play, with slight favor to the Bills in terms of money and the number of bets coming in. We’re going to see pretty two-sided play, just given the Bills are going to have a lot of people say, ‘But they’re the Bills, they have Josh Allen, they’ve been here before, the last bunch of years.’

“That being said, if you can get the Jags plus-money when they’re at home after winning their division, that’s going to create a lot of intrigue as well.

“Only two of [the Jaguars’] last eight wins have been one-possession games. It hasn’t been the hardest stretch, to be fair, but they beat the Broncos by double-digits in Mile High. This is a team that’s potentially ready for the challenge. In the Bills, obviously they’ve been here. They don’t want to go home one-and-done and disappointed again.”

Jacksonville is a +1300 pick at Fanatics to win the Super Bowl. The Bills stand at +1000.

#7 Chargers at #2 Patriots

8 p.m., Sunday, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Betting stat: The 46.5 over/under will be influenced by the weather forecast: 42 degrees and light snow.

USELOFF: “The Chargers, to me, a lot of it’s going to be whether their offensive line holds up. The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games, with a loss to the Bills being the only one in that stretch. That’s a pretty impressive record, but the Patriots are rightful 3.5-point favorites here. To me, the key is going to be if the Chargers get the protection they need for [quarterback] Justin Herbert, because we’ve seen him — when he has time to operate in the pocket, he’s surgical, he can find his receivers downfield. They’ve had a much more vertical passing threat than years past under [head coach] Jim Harbaugh this season, with guys like [Quentin] Johnston breaking out, [Ladd] McConkey, Keenan Allen having an impact. These are important and meaningful pieces, but with all the injuries to their offensive line, it’s going to be tough to protect against a pretty decent Patriots defensive front.

“For the Patriots, [quarterback] Drake Maye is an MVP finalist for a reason. [Head coach] Mike Vrabel is the leader for Coach of the Year for a reason. This team is not your typical worst-to-first playoff team in terms of the experience, so this Patriots team will not shy away from the moment.”

#5 Texans at #4 Steelers

8 p.m., Monday, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Betting stat: The 39.5 opening over/under is the lowest among Wild Card Weekend games.

USELOFF: “I wouldn’t be shocked if this [total] were to drop, just given a lot of folks are going to look at this matchup and think the Steelers don’t score a heck of a lot of points. The Texans defense is probably the best in the NFL. This is going to be a battle of who wins the turnover matchup. This Texans team has looked really good defensively and they’ve been just good enough on offense to be able to survive. But they’re going to have to put up points to potentially keep Pittsburgh at bay, because in close games, Pittsburgh is just so good [7-2] in one-score games this season.

“DeMeco Ryans, obviously, is a really great head coach for the Texans and he has his team ready, but to me the big matchup I’m excited for is the defensive line of the Houston Texans against the offensive line of the Steelers. The Steelers’ O line held up really well against the subpar Ravens front [in a 26-24 playoff-clinching win in Week 18]. I think against a Texans front that’s really, really strong, they’re going to have trouble containing them. And [quarterback Aaron] Rodgers’ immobility outside the pocket … we saw a couple scrambles [against Baltimore] where he couldn’t quite get the wheels going at 42 years old. I expect this to be a big piece of it.

“Also, how do the Steelers reintegrate [previously suspended wide receiver] DK Metcalf into that offense? They had no vertical game, it felt like [against Baltimore].” 

NFC

#5 Rams at #4 Panthers

4:30 p.m., Saturday, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Betting stat: The Rams’ -10.5 point spread is the largest of the Wild Card Weekend.

Despite the Panthers’ winning the NFC South and beating the Rams, 31-28 in Week 13, bettors are showing little confidence in a team that lost its last two games and needed a tie-breaker to make the playoffs. A Rams team that squandered the No. 1 seed remains a popular Super Bowl pick.

USELOFF: “[The Panthers] found a way to beat them [on Nov. 30]. Just looking at some of the stats from that one, on third down, the Panthers were 7-for-15. That’s a good formula. They controlled time of possession, they won the turnover battle 3-0. That’s the way the Panthers would have to win this game in terms of creating takeaways and making sure that they keep the sticks moving. 

“But I think if the Rams are to lose this, it’s going to be a lot of self-inflicted wounds. We’ve seen [quarterback Matthew] Stafford have some inexplicable picks and this team was in the Super Bowl just a handful of years ago. They don’t have home field, but they have all the advantages in the world outside of that. [Injured wide receiver] Davante Adams should be coming back for this matchup. I expect this to settle around that 10[-point] mark, but I expect this to be a close game at least for the first three quarters.”

#7 Packers at #2 Bears

8 p.m., Saturday, Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Betting stat: Green Bay opened as a half-point favorite, despite the status of quarterback Jordan Love being undetermined. (He has since been deemed the starter as he comes back from a concussion.)

Chicago fell short, 28-21, in a late comeback bid at Green Bay on Dec. 7, but won, 22-16, in overtime at home on Dec. 20.

USELOFF: “It’s as close to a coin flip as you’ll find in a playoff game. The Packers have been battle-tested and have been in the playoffs the last bunch of years. [Head coach] Matt LaFleur has shown his ability to get to the playoffs and, in some cases, win games when they’ve gotten in. Jordan Love has been able to take his team to the playoffs before and [Bears quarterback] Caleb Williams with [head coach] Ben Johnson, this is obviously new for them. When I look at this game, the Bears have been really good when they’ve been able to run the ball effectively, while the Packers have a bunch of injuries to both sides of the ball. Obviously, no [defensive end] Micah Parsons [lost to a season-ending Achilles injury] is going to be really critical toward how this game ends up being played.

“If you look at the [Dec. 20] game, a lot of what it came down to was the turnovers that Green Bay had, and then the Bears were able to execute better in the red zone. The Packers were 0-for-5 converting those into touchdowns. That’s going to be a point of emphasis for them heading into this Wild Card matchup.”

An “overwhelming majority” of the money has come in on the Bears moneyline, Useloff said, while the spread is “less clear.”

That’s been helped by heavy betting volume in Illinois for the Bears’ first playoff game since 2021. Chicago’s last home playoff contest was the 2019 “Double-Doink” 16-15 loss to Philadelphia when Bears kicker Cody Parkey’s attempted game-winner was partially blocked, glanced the left upright, then the crossbar, before falling short.

#6 49ers at #3 Eagles

4:30 p.m., Sunday, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Betting stat: The NFC West — with conference No. 1 seed Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco in the playoffs — has the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +125.

USELOFF: “You see the reigning Super Bowl champs at home and they’re only 3.5-point favorites against a Wild Card team. Independent of what the Niners have looked like, it’s a little surprising to see the Eagles fall this far. I understand they haven’t looked as strong, but they’re still 11-6. If they’d played their starters [in a Week 18 loss to Washington, when Philadelphia could have captured the No. 2 seed], they’re probably 12-5. That being said, they haven’t looked good at points this season. Their offense has looked out of sorts. They’re going to have to make sure they get their run game going early to be able to not only control tempo and get their defense rested, but also just to be able to balance and complement itself. 

“The Niners are going to have to make sure they get production out of their skill position guys. [Running back Christian] McCaffrey was very limited against Seattle last week. I think that’s one key that the Eagles are going to try to exploit, that [the San Francisco] offense is much more single-faceted if they don’t have the run game going. They’re going to have to unlock guys like [tight end George] Kittle, [wide receiver Ricky] Pearsall.

“Both teams have championship experience, being in the Super Bowl. Each team has played in a handful of Super Bowls the last bunch of years. This is a quintessential coaching matchup to me. I think that’s going to be a big part of it. How these teams perform in the red zone, third and fourth down, the penalties. Those are going to be the three keys to the game from a coaching standpoint.”