Robinhood and Susquehanna’s new prediction market Rothera looks to be on the verge of launching, after the business self-certified its first contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The self-certifications were published by the CFTC Wednesday and first reported by PredictionMarketPulse.
Self-certification is a process where an exchange tells the CFTC that it plans to list a new type of contract and provides certain details such as the applicable rules. If the CFTC does not object before the listing date specified, the contract may be listed, though it is not technically considered “approved.” It is the method by which almost all CFTC-regulated contracts — in prediction markets and traditional commodities — are listed.
Rothera submitted three self-certifications: on baseball games, weekly jobless claims, and the core PCE price index — a measure of inflation often dubbed the “Fed’s favorite measure.”
The filings say that Rothera plans to list the contracts “on or after May 20.” Prediction markets do not always list contracts on the date they say they will, though Rothera choosing a date further in the future –– rather than simply the next day, as most exchanges do — may suggest that May 20 is a genuine target date, even if it’s just for initial testing.
Robinhood has previously said that Rothera will launch by June 30. It announced plans to launch its own exchange in November.
CFTC no-action letter
Also on Monday, the CFTC published a no-action letter regarding reporting requirements for prediction markets. A technical rule, the requirements allow operators to report prediction market data like binary options despite the products being classed as swaps. It is one of the final steps to launch for any CFTC-regulated prediction market.
With these hurdles out of the way, Rothera could process its first trades soon, though it may begin with some limited testing before a wider launch.
Robinhood currently offers a “prediction market hub” but does not control an active exchange, so it routes customers to Kalshi and, occasionally, ForecastEx.
In September, Robinhood was responsible for almost 60% of volume on Kalshi, but its share has been falling to close to 20%.
In March, Robinhood users bought 3 billion event contracts, giving the platform $30 million in fees.
