Gemini is the latest prediction market to self-certify parlays, doing so with a filing similar to the one used by Kalshi when it launched the product.
According to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filing, Gemini — the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, which expanded into prediction markets last year — self-certified a contract with the title “Will <outcomes> occur in <events>?” the exact same title used by Kalshi in September.
GeminiSelf-certification is a process where an exchange tells the CFTC that it plans to list a new type of contract and provides certain details such as the applicable rules. If the CFTC does not object before the listing date specified, the contract may be listed, though it is not technically considered “approved.” It is the method by which almost all CFTC-regulated contracts — in prediction markets and traditional commodities — are listed.
The filing says that Gemini may offer the contracts from Tuesday May 26, though exchanges do not always list contracts on the date mentioned on their self-certifications.
The title of the filing refers to the products in question as “combos,” which has become the standard prediction market term for a parlay. Further details in the filing show that it has the typical features of a parlay, being based on the settlement of multiple individual legs.
Gemini follows Polymarket U.S. in self-certifying parlays this month. Polymarket’s self-certification, filed last week, referred to the products as “Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts,” or CAOCs for short.
Slow Q1 for Gemini prediction market
Gemini was approved to launch prediction markets in December. In May, the business reported that it had made $400,000 in revenue from prediction markets during the first quarter of the year. Gemini uses a similar fee schedule to Kalshi, where fees vary depending on contract price but tend to average out at about 1% of volume. That would mean volume on the platform would have been around $40 million for the quarter, or less than $500,000 per day.
Gemini parent company Gemini Space Station went public in September, but its shares have struggled, due mostly to declining value of cryptocurrencies, which hurt its crypto exchange operations. The business is valued at $666.7 million, down more than 80% from its IPO price.
Gemini was one of three prediction markets named in a Sunday New York Times report that claimed the CFTC was “mowed down” by “powerful business interests.” The report said that Caroline Pham, who at the time was acting chair of the CFTC, intervened to ensure that Gemini won approval to be a designated contract market. The Winklevoss twins are prominent Trump donors and contributed to the White House ballroom project.
