England’s win over Mexico Sunday was — by some distance — the worst outcome in Kalshi history for takers, who lost more than $32 million betting on who would advance, and the best game ever for market makers.
The third-worst game for takers occurred Monday, as the U.S. lost to Belgium and market makers reaped further profits.
The England-Mexico game was one of the most traded events in Kalshi’s history, with more than $100 million traded before it even kicked off. By the time it finished, $223 million was traded on which team would advance, with hundreds of millions more on other markets related to the game.
On prediction markets like Kalshi, market makers put up prices — often receiving incentives to do so — which are then accepted by “takers.” While any user can act as a market maker on non-parlay markets, makers are more likely to be professional or institutional traders, while takers are often more similar to recreational sports bettors.
Mexico entered game favored on Kalshi
Mexico went into the game as very slight favorites on Kalshi, amid large levels of bets on Mexico, even though England were favored by sportsbooks. Before kickoff, takers were already overwhelmingly on Mexico and this continued as the game went on.
Kalshi does not publish a geographic breakdown of its trading activity, but Mexico is not banned in its user agreement.
Before Sunday, the most that makers had ever lost on a single market was $14.1 million, on Ecuador’s group-stage game win over Germany. The most makers had ever made was $12.9 million. However, these records were shattered by Mexico-England.
Takers lost $32.5 million on England-Mexico, more than double the previous worst game. Almost all of that went to market makers, who made a profit of $29.3 million on the game.
That is the single biggest one-way result in Kalshi history. Previously, taker wins on New York Knicks victories in the 2026 NBA Finals had occupied each of the top two spots. The Knicks’ Game 4 comeback resulted in a $22.4 million win for takers after fees — with Susquehanna in particular among the big losing market makers — and New York’s finals-clinching Game 5 win made another $20.8 million for takers.
The identities of the market makers on specific Kalshi markets are not disclosed by the exchange. Susquehanna International Group is widely believed to be the largest market maker on Kalshi. Kalshi runs its own market maker called Kalshi Trading, which it says is “not profitable” on sports markets. Large sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings recently launched market-making operations and trade on third-party exchanges, which may well include Kalshi.
Mexico had been the subject of regular one-sided flow during the World Cup. The team’s group stage victories over South Korea and Czechia both rank among the 10 most profitable games ever for takers.
The profit and loss figures reflect the total profit and loss across all maker or taker bets. However, because all Kalshi data is anonymized, some of these bets may have been a trader cashing out of a previous position. To cash out on a prediction market, a user places a new trade that cancels out their existing position. Therefore, the true performance of retail traders or professional market makers may have been better or worse than the published figures.
Takers luckier on props, parlays?
Takers lost another $2.2 million after fees on the market for the outcome after 90 minutes plus added time, where games that go to extra time or penalty shootouts are counted as draws. Another $296,000 was lost by takers on goal handicap markets, and $250,000 on the exact score.
However, with the game being high scoring and featuring goals from big-name players such as Harry Kane, Raúl Jiménez, and Jude Bellingham, takers may have performed better on player props and same-game parlays, mitigating some of the losses on outcome-related markets.
Just a day later, takers took more big losses as the U.S. lost to Belgium. That game became the third-biggest loss for takers, at $13.1 million, or $11.4 million before fees.
Yet another record day for Kalshi
In total, $223 million was traded on the “to advance to the quarter-finals” market, putting it ninth all-time among Kalshi markets. The markets ahead were mostly much longer-running events — such as the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election or 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament winner — or golf tournaments, where a large number of competitors at long odds can lead to inflated volume when compared to sportsbook handle.
Another $40.6 million was wagered on the U.S.-Belgium result after 90 minutes plus added time, while $38.6 million was bet on the exact score of the game. Sunday was a record day for volume on Kalshi, with $1.8 billion traded. Before the World Cup began, Kalshi’s record for single-day volume was $806 million on Super Bowl Sunday. This time last year, volume had never exceeded $60 million in a single day.
In terms of trading fees, the “to advance” market was the fourth-most lucrative for Kalshi in its history, making the prediction market $3.2 million. More was likely bet on other game props, player props, and parlays that featured at least one leg from the game.
Kalshi set a daily record for fee revenue on Sunday, too, at $14.8 million. If that was sustained over a year, it would equate to $5.4 billion.
