Novig is off to a rapid start in its time as a prediction market, with volume averaging more than $20 million per day in the past week, making it already the fourth-largest U.S. regulated exchange after just two weeks of being live.
The company has a built-in user base from its time as a sweepstakes platform, and switched to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered prediction market in a single move in early August. Novig applied with the CFTC to be a designated contract market, or exchange, in January, and won approval in June.
Instantly upon launch, Novig processed significant volume, with $18.0 million worth of trades on its first day, Aug. 4. That was more than every U.S.-regulated exchange except Kalshi, Polymarket U.S., and Crypto.com — the three companies that dominated the space ahead of the World Cup.
Volume has grown since then, albeit modestly, with $148.4 million worth of trades processed in the past week, or more than $20 million per day, making Novig the fourth-largest CFTC-registered exchange. On Saturday, Novig set a new high for volume, with $26.3 million. That is more than ForecastEx or DraftKings’ DKeX processed in the past 30 days.
Parlays have been a big part of Novig’s volume so far, making up a little over a third of trading volume. Parlay volume has been more than $5 million every day since launch, peaking at $10.5 million Saturday, and averaging more than $7.5 million per day over the past week. Parlay taker stakes – a closer equivalent to retail betting handle – have averaged a little over $500,000 per day over the last week.
Novig only charges fees on parlays and in-game trades. All other trades, like betting a winner or loser straight up before a game starts, do not have fees. Its parlay fees since launch total $415,132.
Differing approaches
Several CFTC-regulated exchanges have launched this summer, with two distinct categories. Novig and ProphetX, which were previously sweepstakes sites before getting CFTC approval, have had significant volume right out of the gate, with more modest growth since.
Meanwhile, Rothera, DKeX, and Underdog Exchange are all owned by companies that already operated futures commission merchants (FCMs) before getting approval to launch as exchanges. As FCMs, they could direct customers to other exchanges, as well as their in-house exchange.
All three have — to differing degrees — started more slowly than ProphetX or Novig in their opening days, but have grown from there, though none of them send all of their FCM volume to their in-house exchanges yet. As a result, those exchanges may have the ability to increase their volume by the start of NFL season by simply having the FCM directing more customers to the in-house exchange.
