Welcome back to “Midterm Market Monitor,” a recurring InGame feature between now and Nov. 3 in which we explore the latest and most noteworthy prediction market odds and trends related to the upcoming elections.
For supporters of the Republican Party, or for election bettors wanting to load up on Democrats but hoping for better prices than they’re seeing now, there is perhaps a small hint of good news: There are signs suggesting the numbers may have gotten as lopsided in the left’s favor as they’re going to get.
Yes, there’s a lot of couching and spin in that language. Momentum is not exactly on the Republicans’ side, and there’s still plenty of talk of “blue waves” and “blue tsunamis” and you can even bet on those terms at Kalshi!
(In case you’re wondering, Kalshi defines the blue wave as Dems holding 218 or more seats in the House and 49 or more in the Senate, with a blue tsunami defined as 235 or more and 51 or more.)
In any case, things haven’t gotten any worse for Republicans since last week’s edition of Midterm Market Monitor, according to the prediction market prices, as the Democratic momentum appears to be plateauing. The national average gas price is 2.1 cents lower on Tuesday than it was on Monday, which isn’t much, and it’s still 37 cents higher than a month ago and $1.32 higher than a year ago, but we know gas prices (and their trickle-down effects) have strong influence over voter behavior. Every cent matters. And every cent at the pump impacts the percents at the prediction markets.
Again, we’re not saying the markets show the tide turning in the GOP’s favor. But there’s reason to think Republican backers have by now seen the worst of it.
Here’s a closer look at the key markets and trends, five weeks out from Election Day.
Senate control
There’s been no appreciable change here over the past week. At Kalshi, it’s 63% for Dems (up from 61% a week ago). At Polymarket, Dems are also 63% (down from 66% a week ago). PredictIt has the Democrats at 62 cents — exactly the same as last Tuesday. And let’s throw Robinhood into the mix this week for a little added sample sizing. There, the Democrats are at 63 cents, up one penny from a week earlier.
Kalshi has an intriguing market on which Senate race will be the closest when all the votes are counted, with Texas leading at 16%, Iowa next at 13%, and Kansas in third place at 11%. Interestingly, the Kalshi pricing on the Iowa race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is ever so slightly closer than on the Texas race between Democrat James Talarico (pictured at top of article) and Republican Ken Paxton. Iowa is 59-41 in favor of Hinson, while Talarico leads 60-40 in Texas.
Texas has been the most traded market at Kalshi, followed by the eventful race in Maine that was once between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Graham Platner and is now between Collins and Troy Jackson.
House control
A lot can change in a month. That’s a truism that everyone should keep in mind before assuming one party or the other will control the Senate. But the truism may not apply to the House. We’re getting to the point where it looks like only a cataclysmic world event or a major election integrity issue would prevent the House of Representatives from going blue.
Democratic House control won’t budge below 90% anywhere. It’s 90% at PredictIt (the lone outlier a tick below the 90 mark last week), 91% at both Kalshi and Robinhood, and 93% at Polymarket.
Race to watch: Ohio governor
The contest to determine Mike DeWine’s replacement as governor of Ohio is notable because of both how the odds have moved lately and what could be at stake for the gambling industry. Democratic nominee Amy Acton has expressed an openness to legalizing online casino, whereas Republican hopeful Vivek Ramaswany has played it close to the vest on that issue.
Not that iGaming stances are likely to swing the election, but those who want to see the vertical legalized and regulated in Ohio should be encouraged by the odds movement. Whereas the numbers showed the race flipping back and forth for most of the summer, Acton has been separating herself from Ramaswany in September.
As of Tuesday morning, Acton led 63-40 at Robinhood, 61-40 at Polymarket, 61-39 at Kalshi, and 61-38 at PredictIt.
Presidential election odds
There hasn’t been any dramatic movement over the past week in the odds for who’ll capture the Oval Office in November 2028 — JD Vance remains the favorite everywhere, trading between 20-26 cents, as he is currently considered the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. But there is noteworthy division from one operator to the next over how to rank the top two Democrat candidates.
At Kalshi, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is ahead of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 12% to 9.2%, and he’s ahead of her by a similar margin at Robinhood, 15 cents to 12 cents. But it’s AOC who leads at PredictIt, 13% to 11%, and she’s also just ahead of Ossoff at Polymarket, 13% to 12%.
Need a chuckle? Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is 2% at Polymarket, which also lists term-limited (if laws matter) Donald Trump at 1% and the likes of Elon Musk, Michelle Obama, Stephen A. Smith, LeBron James, Kim Kardashian, and Jalen Brunson all below 1%. For the record, Musk was born in South Africa and is not eligible to be elected U.S. president under the current rules, and Brunson recently turned 30 and will not reach the minimum age for presidential election of 35 in time for the 2028 election. If you don’t mind tying up a lot of money for a couple of years at a tiny return, you can’t lose with the “no” on some of these.
Wacky market of the week
One of the games within the game of U.S. politics is the maneuvering by both Republicans and Democrats to control Supreme Court seats. (Yeah, judges are supposed to be nonpartisan, but let’s ignore what they’re “supposed to be” and live in the real world.)
Polymarket offers prices on when Justice Samuel Alito, the second-oldest current SCOTUS judge at 76, will announce his retirement. The assumption is that he’ll do so before it gets close to the 2028 presidential election, so Trump can attempt to replace him with another conservative pick.
Several previously set market deadlines have already passed and resolved as no, and Polymarket has another deadline of this Wednesday that was mere hours away at time of writing from resolving as no. The date of June 30, 2027, starts to get us close to a coin flip, with yes trading at 41 cents and no at 60 cents.
