Welcome back to “Midterm Market Monitor,” a recurring InGame feature between now and Nov. 3 in which we explore the latest and most noteworthy prediction market odds and trends related to the upcoming elections.
As we heard ad nauseum in 2016, when many said the betting odds got it “wrong” after the presidential election, if there’s an 85% chance of someone winning it also means there’s a 15% chance of them losing.
Prediction markets are not “truth machines,” no matter what the folks profiting off of them would have you believe. They provide useful insights in the form of percentages and probabilities, but they do not provide certainty.
Which is a roundabout way of saying: On Nov. 3, some candidates currently priced as underdogs will surely end up winning their races and taking office.
Alex Keeney of Eventual appeared last week on the Business of Betting podcast, and he wrapped the interview by singling out two underdogs with a real shot to win: Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa in the Texas governor race against incumbent Greg Abbott, and J.D. Ford in a relatively under-the-radar House race in Indiana.
Keeney pointed out that Republican Ken Paxton is running behind Democrat James Talarico in the Senate race in Texas (63%-37% at Kalshi as of Tuesday morning), and “if the Dem wave is as bad [for Republicans] as it’s said to be, why are all of the people, all of these Latinos that the Republicans are probably going to lose and were counting on to win this Senate election, why are they going to stop at the attractive, competent Latina running on the Democratic ticket?” Keeney believes most Talarico voters will also be Hinojosa voters, which makes betting on her the “high-multiple, YOLO play.”
At Polymarket Tuesday, as one example, a Hinojosa contract would deliver just over a 3-to-1 return, as she’s a 24% ‘dog. That’s up from 21% when Keeney made the suggestion last week.
In Indiana, Democrat Ford is challenging incumbent Victoria Spartz, who Keeney said is “well known to be the worst and least competent Republican in the House of Representatives. Nate Silver’s guy says that she’s still going to win, but she’s got a tough race against a mildly qualified opponent in Indiana-05. That might be a good longshot pick too.”
Kalshi had Spartz priced as an 83%-17% favorite Tuesday morning, making Ford a steeper longshot than Hinojosa in Texas — but according to Keeney, worth a flyer if the “blue tsunami” reaches some districts that were initially thought of as slam dunks for Republicans. No Democrat has won the IN-05 House seat since Jim Jontz in 1990.
So, those are a couple of races for longshot bettors to consider a fortnight out from the election. Here’s a look at the rest of the midterm picture.
Senate control
One week ago, the prospect of Democrats holding at least 51 Senate seats was priced at 62% at Kalshi, 64% at Polymarket, 63% at Robinhood, and 64% at PredictIt. As of press time, those percentages were 64, 65, 64, and 65, respectively. Which doesn’t sound like much of a change. But this deep in an election cycle, with markets this liquid, a shift of one or two points at every major prediction market is a lot.
On a related note, we recommend avoiding the comments underneath most major markets. A quick glance at the Polymarket comments reveals references to “dumbocrats,” “libtards,” and “Russian bots” right off the top — and those are the relatively tame ones that we don’t have to censor for publication.
House control
As with the Senate, the House has ticked about one percentage point in the blue direction since last week, with Dems now 91% at both Kalshi and PredictIt and 92% at Robinhood and Polymarket.
Echoing the 2016 flashback note from the top of the column, though: A 92% chance of Democratic control means an 8% chance of Republican control, which is, ya know, eight points more than zero.
At Kalshi, a separate market asking how many House seats Democrats will end up with has 234-237 in the lead at 17%, followed by 230-233 at 16%, and in the epic disaster scenario for the red team, anything above 249 seats at 15%. The last time either party held 250 or more House seats was from 2009-2011, when Dems had 257, following Barack Obama’s initial election and before the red wave in the 2010 midterms that saw Republicans swing a net of 63 seats.
Race to watch: Georgia governor
You want a close one that happens to be in a state where the future of legal gambling is potentially on the line every election cycle? The race for Georgia governor between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson was, as of Tuesday morning, a true dead heat at Kalshi, Robinhood, and PredictIt. At Polymarket, Bottoms was on top, at 53%.
Not all races in Georgia are so close — Democrat Jon Ossoff is over 95% at some markets in his Senate reelection bid — but Bottoms vs. Jackson looks like it’s coming down to the wire.
Bottoms has publicly supported a voter referendum on legalizing sports betting, while Jackson has not tipped his hand on that issue.
Presidential election odds
Going back to the insights of Eventual’s Keeney, he offered this advice on The Business of Betting regarding the 2028 election: Invest now in low-priced longshots who figure to rise in a year or two and give you an opportunity to sell your position at a profit.
Keeney suggested, for example, backing Raphael Warnock (2.4% at Kalshi) or Andy Beshear (4.5%) to get the Democratic nomination, expecting both to go up a couple of points down the road — even if neither is likely to ultimately capture the nomination.
“Don’t buy those 20-cent [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] shares,” Keeney advised. “Buy the cheap ones.”
For what it’s worth, current Vice President J.D. Vance remains the favorite to win the presidency at all markets (even though his party is the underdog), but there’s been a change in the odds among the Dems, with Gavin Newsom once again the frontrunner at most sites and Ossoff having lost ground.
Wacky market of the week
You will be unsurprised to learn that there’s a fair amount of interest at Kalshi in “Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary?” The market has generated more than $2 million in volume since going live last Friday, after Katie Zacharia was fired a mere five days into her tenure.
Current White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly is the favorite at 15%, followed by CNN’s Scott Jennings at 13%. Former Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt ranks seventh on the list at 2%.
There is also a market on Kalshi for when the next press secretary will be announced. There is not yet a market for how long the next press secretary will last in the job.
