Prediction markets in the United States trace their origins to the political and cultural betting that existed in Europe centuries ago. Wagers were wildly popular on news of the day such as papal conclaves and the outcome of the American Revolution.
Political betting came to these shores with English colonizers and was seen as a socially acceptable form of gambling because it helped newspapers predict elections before modern polling services. Outlawed before World War II, political betting went dormant for decades until a project at the University of Iowa revived it in the name of research.
Today, commercial prediction markets like Crypto.com and Kalshi have emerged as surprising new disruptors to the state-regulated legal sports betting industry that has developed in the U.S. since the fall of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in 2018.
InGame‘s modern history of prediction markets in the U.S.:
1988: Iowa Electronic Market
An academic experiment launched by the University of Iowa, it was tacitly allowed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as long as no speculators held more than a $500 position in any market. The first to offer “0-100” pricing, it remains in operation.
1990: Project Xanadu corporate prediction market
Economist Robin Hanson, widely seen one of the most influential figures in the early stages of prediction markets, set up an internal prediction market for staff at software company Project Xanadu.
May 2001: Pentagon aims to create geopolitical prediction market
The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) began to set up a prediction market called the Policy Analysis Market that would have allowed users to buy and sell contracts based on political outcomes in certain Middle Eastern countries.
However, in 2003, before the market actually went live, the project was shut down after senators raised concerns about the idea of betting on events like war and assassination.
Feb. 18, 2004: Crypto.com gets DCM certification
The original company that has now become Crypto.com got non-intermediated trading approval under the name HedgeStreet, Inc., before later being acquired by IG Group and changing its name to the North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX) in June 2009. NADEX in March 2022 was acquired by Foris DAX Markets, Inc. d/b/a Crypto.com
Jan. 28, 2008: Hubdub prediction market launches
Scottish entrepreneur Nigel Eccles launched Hubdub as a virtual money-based prediction market with a focus on technology and entertainment.
Hubdub eventually morphed into a daily fantasy sports product named FanDuel, and the prediction market offering closed in 2010.
July 21, 2010: Dodd-Frank puts CFTC in charge of event contracts
In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act into law.
The bill included a wide range of financial reforms. Among them were rules bringing event contracts under the regulation of the CFTC. It also included a “special rule” covering contracts on assassination, terrorism, war, or gaming, which has faced differing interpretations as prediction markets have expanded their offerings.
Dec. 19, 2011: NADEX tries to launch political predictions
NADEX aimed to become the first company to offer CFTC-regulated political event contracts when it filed to self-certify trades on the 2012 House, Senate, and presidential elections.
However, the CFTC launched a review of the contracts in January 2012, and ultimately ruled them to be “contrary to the public interest.”
March 10, 2013: Intrade closes all US accounts
An Irish exchange market that sought and was denied CFTC licensure, Intrade began doing business in the U.S. in 2007. It gained national media attention for its accuracy in predicting the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. The site offered real- and ersatz-money wagering and attempted unsuccessfully to placate the CFTC by shutting the real-money markets from U.S. customers after the CFTC filed suit on Nov. 26, 2012.
Nov. 3, 2014: PredictIt launches
A New Zealand-based project owned by Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt secured tacit permission from the CFTC to offer political “Yes/No” markets because of its academic affiliation. PredictIt was initially limited to 5,000 traders per market, none of whom could hold more than an $850 stake in that market.
2018: Kalshi founded
Former Goldman Sachs employees Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara created Kalshi, and took steps toward CFTC registration.
July 10, 2018: Augur launches first major crypto-based prediction market
Augur became the first major crypto-based prediction market. That model of an exchange taking cryptocurrency payments, recording transactions on a blockchain, and not seeking CFTC registration became a template for Polymmarket. It was originally live worldwide, before blocking the U.S. and U.K. in 2020.
June 16, 2020: Polymarket launches
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, working out of his bathroom, and went live across the globe in June of that year. Early markets included the 2020 presidential election and development of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Nov. 30, 2020: Kalshi obtains DCM registration
The U.S.-based prediction market got approval to be a designated contracts market (DCM) from the CFTC.
Dec. 15, 2020: ErisX attempts to list sports event contracts
ErisX, a CFTC-registered crypto exchange, was the first company to try to introduce CFTC-registered sports event contracts. It saw the contracts — launched as legal sportsbooks expanded across the U.S. in the wake of the repeal of PASPA — as a way for sportsbooks to lay off risk.
However, the CFTC opened a review of the contracts as it aimed to determine whether they were in the public interest and asked for public comment on whether it should allow them.
March 25, 2021: ErisX sports contract plan withdrawn
Amid concerns from the NFL, and with the CFTC expected to block the offering, ErisX withdrew its plan to offer sports event contracts.
Although the CFTC never published an actual ruling on the contracts’ legality, one commissioner — Brian Quintenz — released what would have been a dissenting opinion on the matter, arguing the contracts should have been permitted.
June 28, 2021: Kalshi launches in-house market maker
According to documents filed with the CFTC, Kalshi’s in-house market maker Kalshi Trading began making bets on the platform on this date.
Kalshi Trading has been controversial, as it is owned by the same company as the Kalshi exchange, and the two share board members. Kalshi says the trading arm is subject to “strict informational barriers” that mean it does not have an advantage trading on the platform.
Jan. 3, 2022: CFTC orders Polymarket to pay $1.4m, block US
The CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million penalty and to wind down its U.S. operation, after determining that the site was offering unregistered event contracts in the U.S.
Polymarket remained active, but stopped allowing users with U.S. IP addresses to trade.
Aug. 4, 2022: CFTC withdraws PredictIt ‘no action’ letter
The CFTC withdrew the “no-action letter” that had allowed PredictIt to operate in the U.S. as a not-for-profit academic prediction market, effectively ordering the site to shut down or stop offering real-money trades.
PredictIt sued, challenging the decision.
Nov. 1, 2023: Kalshi sues CFTC over election bets
Kalshi sued its regulator, initially in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, after its decision in September to block the prediction market from offering bets on elections, which the CFTC argued were against the public interest.
The CFTC argued that it was impractical to expect the agency to police manipulation and fraud in elections.
April 3, 2024: Wall Street giant Susquehanna becomes Kalshi market maker
Quantitative trading behemoth Susquehanna — one of the largest players on Wall Street — became the first outside firm to become a market maker on Kalshi. Under the agreement with the exchange, Susquehanna would receive rebates for offering trades to Kalshi users. Details of how much Susquehanna trades or what kind of rebates it receives are unknown.
June 24, 2024: ForecastEX obtains DCM status
Also a derivatives clearing organization, ForecastEx is not currently offering sports event markets. It is partnered with International Brokers Group, Robinhood, and International Global Investors, which provides liquidity.
Oct. 2, 2024: Court lets Kalshi offer election contracts
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled that the CFTC did not show how Kalshi’s election contracts would harm the public interest, and allowed Kalshi to go ahead offering trades on the 2024 elections, which were just over a month away.
Nov. 5, 2024: Election brings record volume to Kalshi and Polymarket
The 2024 presidential election brought record levels of volume to Kalshi and Polymarket. On Kalshi, $245 million was traded on a single day.
Before votes were counted, the prediction markets gave Donald Trump around a 60% chance of winning despite polling averages in key swing states suggesting the two candidates were more or less tied. Prediction market advocates argued Trump’s victory therefore showed the forecasting power of election trading.
Nov. 14, 2024: DOJ investigates Polymarket
The Department of Justice launched an investigation into Polymarket and raided the home of its founder Shayne Coplan, alleging the exchange was still knowingly accepting U.S. customers even after its 2022 settlement.
Dec. 23, 2024: Crypto.com offers sports event contracts
Crypto.com self-certified to offer contracts on sporting events including the Super Bowl, and days later became the first company to offer regulated sports event contracts in the U.S.
Unlike ErisX’s effort, the CFTC took no action in response to the self-certification, meaning that Crypto.com was allowed to offer trading on the contracts.
Jan. 13, 2025: Trump Jr. becomes Kalshi advisor
Kalshi named Donald Trump, Jr. a “strategic advisor” a week ahead of his father’s inauguration as president.
“With his extensive business experience and influence, Don Jr. brings a fresh perspective to Kalshi as we continue to push prediction markets into the mainstream,” Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour wrote in a blog post at the time.
Jan. 23, 2025: Kalshi launches sports contracts
Kalshi became the second company to self-certify to offer sports event contracts when it offered its own trades on sports, including the Super Bowl and March Madness.
The exchange’s social media accounts advertised the product as “available in all 50 states,” seemingly highlighting the fact that the contracts would allow users to bet on sports in states that hadn’t legalized sportsbooks.
March 4, 2025: Kalshi receives first cease-and-desist letter
The Nevada Gaming Control Board became the first state gambling regulator to order Kalshi to shut down its sports and election contracts, arguing that the markets are an illegal form of betting.
Later cease-and-desists would follow from states like New Jersey and Maryland.
March 17, 2025: Robinhood offers Kalshi contracts as March Madness begins
Stock trading app Robinhood allowed users to access contracts offered by Kalshi, including sports contracts, just before the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tipped off.
March Madness and Robinhood led to an instant surge in volume. Before this point, sports had been only a minority of Kalshi’s trading volume, but from mid-March onward it made up the vast majority of activity.
March 2025: DraftKings pulls National Futures Association application
The Boston-based daily fantasy/sports betting/online casino company withdrew an application with the NFA that would have allowed “DraftKings Predict” to offer sports prediction markets nationally.
March 28, 2025: Kalshi sues Nevada and New Jersey
Kalshi took its battle with state regulators to federal court, arguing that gambling authorities in Nevada and New Jersey do not have the authority to shut down its sports operation, as only the CFTC had jurisdiction over its contracts.
April 3, 2025: Underdog applies for NFA licensure
The daily fantasy purveyor sought the right to become a swap firm and futures commission merchant (FCM).
April 8, 2025: Kalshi gets first major court win
The U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada granted Kalshi an injunction, allowing the business to keep offering sports event contracts in the state. Kalshi would win a similar injunction in its case against New Jersey weeks later.
April 25, 2025: Sporttrade attempts to enter
In a “no-action” request to the CFTC, Sporttrade became the first platform with a legal, regulated sportsbook operation in the United States to petition for the right to launch a prediction market. [and what happened?]
April 25, 2025: Highly-anticipated CFTC forum cancelled
Without warning or notice to those scheduled to attend, the CFTC canceled a prediction market roundtable scheduled for April 30. It was not rescheduled as the CFTC began to distance itself from pushing back on the expansion efforts of Kalshi and others.
May 1, 2025: NBA tells CFTC prediction markets are an integrity risk
In a public comment forum, the league joined with other pro circuits in warning of a lack of regulatory guardrails.
Said NBA Vice President and Assistant General Counsel, League Governance and Policy Alexandra Roth: “This expansion which has proceeded entirely via the self-certification process, suggests to us that player proposition markets (i.e., markets focused on a player’s single-game performance) or other potential markets (e.g., markets focused on officiating decisions, league rules, or player injuries) are not far behind. This rapid expansion of sports prediction markets has occurred in the absence of the kind of robust, sports-specific regulatory framework that would aim to protect the integrity of the games being played.”
May 21, 2025: Kalshi announces deal with xAI, then rescinds
Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour alluded to a partnership with Elon Musk’s company, then deleted the X post trumpeting it.
May 28, 2025: PrizePicks seeks NFA seal
The daily fantasy giant applied to be a swap firm and FCM.
June 24, 2025: DraftKings again applies to join the NFA
A group called Gus III Holdings applied for NFA membership using DraftKings’ address and phone number, and executives including CEO Jason Robins and CFO Alan Ellingson were listed as principals of Gus III. NFA membership is a precursor to CFTC licensure to become a DCM.
July 2, 2025: Kalshi launches college football betting
Kalshi became the first prediction market to post “Yes/No” sports event contracts for college football ahead of Week 0 games.
July 15, 2025: Polymarket probe dropped
The Department of Justice ended its investigation into Polymarket offering its services to U.S. customers, a step that helped clear the way for the prediction market to prepare to relaunch in the U.S.
Coplan said at the time that his business was “cleared of all wrongdoing.”
July 21, 2025: Polymarket acquires QCX LLC and obtains DCM license
Polymarket paid $112 million for QCX LLC, which had been approved for DCM on July 9, allowing Polymarket to advance plans to return to full operational status in the U.S.
Aug. 1, 2025: Kalshi loses Maryland injunction bid
The U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland became the first court to issue a ruling banning Kalshi’s sports event contracts, as it denied the prediction market an injunction.
However, Kalshi appealed the ruling, and the state agreed to allow it to continue to operate in Maryland while the appeal is ongoing.
Aug. 18, 2025: Kalshi self-certifies for spreads, totals, and parlays
Kalshi prepared to step further onto what had been the turf of sportsbooks as it self-certified to offer contracts on football game totals, spreads, and player props.
The totals and spreads markets went live the same day the self-certification filing was published, but props only launched weeks later.
Aug. 20, 2025: FanDuel partners with CME to launch an exchange
The sports betting/daily fantasy/online casino giant pacted with derivatives marketplace CME to create an “event contacts” platform in the U.S.
Aug. 27, 2025: The Clearing Company announces funding
A startup led mostly by former Polymarket staff, The Clearing Company announced it had raised $15 million and intended to build a blockchain-based prediction market.
Sept. 2, 2025: Underdog launches sports contracts with Crypto.com
Underdog became the first sportsbook or daily fantasy business to launch event contracts, as it partnered with Crypto.com to make trading available in 16 states, mostly focused on jurisdictions where sportsbooks were not yet legal.
Underdog is a “technical service provider” to Crypto.com, meaning that it does not have any formal designation with the CFTC.
Sept. 4, 2025: Kalshi offers parlays for NFL opener
Kalshi posted a pre-built sports parlay for the first time for the NFL season opener between Dallas and Philadelphia.
Sept. 8, 2025: PredictIt announces DCM certification
The 11-year-old prediction market became CFTC-registered as a DCM Sept. 5, and CEO John Aristotle Phillips trumpeted an expansion beyond its political markets, though didn’t mention sports event contracts specifically. The new markets were expected in October 2025, but had not launched as of Oct. 31, 2025.
Sept. 15, 2025: Arizona warns licensees to avoid prediction markets
The Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG) warned sports betting and fantasy sports operators that licenses could be jeopardized by doing business with prediction markets outside of the state.
Sept. 16, 2025: ForecastEx self-certifies to offer sports event contracts
Chicago-based ForecastEx, a DCM and derivative clearing organization owned by Interactive Brokers, self-certified with the CFTC to offer sports event contracts. NFL Vice President of Sports Betting David Highhill said that prediction markets lack the “regulatory requirements that we know regulated sportsbooks are subjected to.”
Sept. 17, 2025: Prediction markets = illegal betting for NFL personnel
The National Football League declared that players and staff are forbidden to speculate on league games on prediction markets just as they are barred from using sportsbooks to bet on them.
Sept. 24, 2025: ‘South Park’ features prediction markets
The storied Comedy Central show skewered prediction markets, introducing much of the nation to them. The show centered around whether Kyle’s mom would bomb a Palestinian hospital and the prediction market surrounding it.
Sept. 25, 2025: PrizePicks gains NFA seal
A day after announcing it had been acquired by Allwyn Entertainment, PrizePicks became the “first company affiliated with a fantasy sports operator to be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant by the National Futures Association,” according to a release, and would do business as PrizePicks Predict.
Sept. 27, 2025: Kalshi breaks election-day records
Kalshi users traded $260.7 million on a day of blockbuster college football games, breaking the daily volume record that had been set on election day in 2024. It would set another new record the next day.
Sept. 29, 2025: Kalshi offers same-game parlays, Wall Street takes note
Kalshi launched a feature allowing users to create their own parlays, allowing for bets similar to same-game parlays on a sportsbook.
When stock markets opened the next morning, shares in FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings plunged, wiping $7 billion off the companies’ combined market values.
Sept. 29, 2025: Sleeper sues CFTC over NFA application
The fantasy sports giant sued the CFTC over its pending FCM application with the NFA, saying the CFTC took “arbitrary and capricious” actions to block the business from gaining the approvals needed to offer sports event contracts.
Oct. 1, 2025: ForecastEx self-certifies sports markets
Chicago-based ForecastEx self-certified filed documents with the CFTC to include types of proposition bets in its eventual sports event contract menu. ForecastEx, a DCM and derivative clearing organization (DCO) owned by Interactive Brokers, has not yet launched sports markets. Companies may post markets the next business day after self-certification unless ordered to stand down by the CFTC.
Oct. 7, 2025: DraftKings CEO dismisses prediction markets
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said at the Global Gaming Expo, “I just don’t see a world” where bettors choose prediction markets over sportsbooks in states where both are legal.
Oct. 7, 2025: Polymarket raises $2 billion from NYSE owner
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns and operates the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), plunged $2 billion into Polymarket, seeing it as the merging point of traditional and emerging digital finance.
The investment valued Polymarket at at least at $9 billion as it prepared to relaunch in the United States.
Oct. 10, 2025: Kalshi expands to more than 140 countries
Kalshi went from offering contracts only in the United States to most of the world. Now able to reach billions of new customers, the site began amassing volume in one massive liquidity pool. Notable among countries on Kalshi’s restricted jurisdiction list is the United Kingdom. Despite the restriction, previously confirmed users from other countries can access Kalshi while in the U.K.
Oct. 10, 2025: Kalshi’s valuation hits $5 billion
Kalshi announced the close of a $300 million funding round, bringing it to a $5 billion valuation. The platform had been valued at $2 billion in June.
Oct. 15, 2025: No sports betting for ForecastEX
During a Q3 earnings call, ForecastEx Chairman Thomas Peterffy said the company “was not currently contemplating getting into sports betting.”
Oct. 16, 2025: Nevada warns licensees clear of prediction markets
The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) warned its licensees against doing business with prediction markets, threatening state licenses. The NGCB stated that it considers sports event contracts to be wagering “whether the contract is listed on an exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or elsewhere.”
Oct. 18, 2025: Kalshi has first outage during sporting events
Blaming “extreme demand” on a college football Saturday, Kalshi’s site went down during a major sporting event for the first time since it began offering football event contracts in January. The site was down for about 90 minutes on a day of big games with big results — Vanderbilt beat LSU and Georgia outlasted Ole Miss. Trading on the site’s FCMs such as Robinhood appeared unaffected.
Oct. 21, 2025: DraftKings buys Railbird Exchange
Consummating a deal rumored for months, DraftKings announced the purchase of CFTC-certified DCM Railbird and announced its intentions to launch DraftKings Predictions “in the coming months.” DraftKings did not specifically mention its intentions regarding sports events contracts, but its stock prices rose in anticipation of the move. Terms were not disclosed.
Oct. 22, 2025: NHL partners with Kalshi, Polymarket
The National Hockey League became the first major sports league in the U.S. to partner with a prediction market, announcing deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, which will both be “official prediction market partners of the NHL,” allowing them to use NHL logos and other designations such as the term Stanley Cup, rather than generic phrases like “pro hockey champion.”
Oct. 23, 2025: Arkansas AG says he views prediction markets as illegal
Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin wrote in an opinion that prediction markets like Kalshi “violate the law” by offering what is simply a “rebranded” form of gambling without the required state license. The state Office of the Attorney General published the opinion following questions from state Sen. Bryan King, who asked whether a company like Kalshi would be “in violation of state law” by operating in Arkansas without a license.
Oct. 28, 2025: Trump Media partners with Crypto.com
Trump Media and Technology Group announced a deal to launch prediction markets on its Truth Social app through a partnership with Crypto.com.
The markets will be embedded directly within the social media app Truth Social, which will make it the first social media app to integrate prediction markets. The offering will include both sports — across all major leagues — and non-sporting events.
Nov. 3, 2025: Crypto.com pulls sports contracts from Nevada
Crypto.com became the first prediction market to stop offering sports event contracts in a single state, as it pulled its sports offering from Nevada, after failing to receive an injunction to prevent the state from enforcing a cease-and-desist letter.
Nov. 6, 2025: DraftKings says it will offer sports contracts
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins wrote in an investor letter that DraftKings will offer event contracts on sports “in many states” in the “coming months,” despite regulators’ warnings about getting involved with sports event contracts.
Nov. 7, 2025: Google Finance announces prediction market plan
Google Finance laid out a plan to integrate prediction market data into its new AI-powered platform, saying in a release that consumers will be able to ask questions such as “What will GDP growth be for 2025?” into the search bar to get a look at current and historical probabilities?”
Nov. 10, 2025: Judge rules that Kalshi can keep operating on tribal land
Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California rebuffed Blue Lake Rancheria, the Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and the Picayune Rancheria of the Chukchansi Indians, who requested an injunction that would have prohibited Kalshi from offering sports event contracts on their land.
This although the judge conceded that the prediction market “may have found a way around prohibitions on interstate gambling.”
Nov. 10, 2025: ProphetX opts for prediction market pivot
The former sports exchange turned sweepstakes site filed to become a federally regulated prediction market exchange.
Nov. 12, 2025: PrizePicks announces Polymarket deal
PrizePicks said it will offer its customers access to Polymarket’s sports event contracts when the prediction market relaunches in the U.S.
Nov. 12, 2025: FanDuel reveals sports event contract plans
FanDuel revealed that it will make trades on major U.S. sports available in “states where online sports betting is not yet legal,” excluding tribal lands, beginning in December. The company added that it was willing to lose $350 million on prediction markets by the end of 2026.
Nov. 20, 2025: Fanatics announces prediction market entry with Crypto.com
Fanatics founder Michael Rubin revealed in an interview with CNBC Thursday that the company would launch Fanatics Predicts with Crypto.com “in the next few weeks.” The company quietly purchased all or part of a company that is already registered with the NFA as an introducing broker (IB) before Rubin announced the Crypto.com partnership.
Nov. 20, 2025: Senate Committee Votes To Advance Selig CFTC Nomination
The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry voted to approve Selig’s nomination in a 12-11 party-line vote, meaning the nomination advanced to the full senate.
Nov. 25, 2025: Nevada Federal Judge Dissolves Preliminary Injunction Granted To Kalshi Initially
Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved an injunction that had allowed Kalshi to keep offering its sports event contracts in Nevada since April, putting the status of its offerings in the state at risk. Kalshi is “anticipating” an appeal.
Nov. 25, 2025: Robinhood and SIG Announce Joint Venture
Both partners of Kalshi, Robinhood as a distribution partner and SIG as a market maker, announced a Robinhood-controlled joint venture that will operate a prediction market exchange and compete with the rest of the lot. The JV acquired a 90% stake in LedgerX LLC, an already-registered DCM doing business as MIAX Derivatives Exchange. A Robinhood spokesperson said that the fintech firm will continue working with Kalshi, and listing its markets on the platform.
Daniel O’Boyle and Jill R. Dorson contributed to this report
