Susquehanna International Group’s prediction market desk took its biggest ever sports loss making markets during the Knicks’ Game 4 NBA Finals comeback Wednesday, while Kalshi reported a record day for volume.
Susquehanna’s losses, a source familiar with the situation says, were almost entirely on the game-winner market.
The Knicks traded at about 5% odds while down 29 points in the third quarter, and were priced at below 10% for more than 80 minutes of real time. The source familiar with the situation added that the majority of Susquehanna’s losses came on in-game bets on the Knicks while the team was a long way behind, and that it took bets at 5% odds.
“I won’t confirm the exact loss, but it was a tough day,” Susquehanna co-founder Jeff Yass told InGame via the company’s prediction market team. “I grew up a Knicks fan but at this size, I was conflicted.”
In total, market makers on the game traded $119.9 million, compared to $87.0 million for “takers.” Takers made a $22.4 million profit before fees, or $20.6 million after fees, on that game. Market makers therefore lost $22.4 million before fees.
Susquehanna is believed to be the largest market maker on Kalshi.
Record day for Kalshi
All in all, the day was a record one for Kalshi, with $872 million traded. That narrowly beat Super Bowl Sunday, when $871 million was traded.
The game-winner market was one of the top 10 most traded markets of all time on Kalshi, with $171.6 million traded, making Kalshi $2.3 million in fees. Large comebacks can boost volume on Kalshi, both by genuinely driving more bets, and because volume can appear higher, when compared to sportsbook betting handle, on bets at long odds.
Many millions more were traded on player props, point-spread and game-total markets, parlays related to the game, and the overall NBA champion market.
Combos, or parlays, played a big role in the total volume figure, with a record $266.8 million worth of multi-leg bets traded.
Volume on these trades can arguably be misleading, because the maker side is virtually always a professional or institutional market maker, and that side typically makes up the vast majority of volume due to the long odds of parlays. The total amount staked by takers betting yes — the closest equivalent to sportsbook betting handle — was $18.5 million.
Although sports continue to make up the vast majority of Kalshi volume, non-sports volume has risen this year too. On Wednesday, $124.3 million was traded on non-sports markets, which now consistently produce more than $100 million in volume per day.
Kalshi made $7.6 million in fees on June 10, not quite a record, as it ended up $91,316 behind Super Bowl Sunday.
