Kalshi vs. Robinhood

Welcome to the InGame Kalshi vs. Robinhood comparison page. With the recent explosion of prediction market products, there have naturally been a lot of searches related to “Kalshi vs. Robinhood” on the internet.

While both platforms offer the ability to trade, they differ in distinct ways. Kalshi is a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is a popular app that allows its customers to trade on just about anything – as long as there is at least some modest amount of interest on the topic.

Robinhood, on the other hand, allows its customers to integrate Kalshi predictions into a broader investment platform that operates as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM).

On this page, we’ll explore how Kalshi and Robinhood set their platforms apart from each other, how they operate as separate business types even though they have a business partnership, and how you can get started trading today by opening an account with one or both of these apps.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are online platforms that allow customers to trade contracts related to the outcomes of individual events, ranging from sports contests to market performance and global affairs.

Prediction markets do this by offering contracts in a “Yes/No” format. Each contact is priced based on its perceived odds to be correct, and the odds of each contract are directly set by other traders on the platform.

A huge “favorite” prediction (such as choosing that Bitcoin will be priced at a minimum of $50,000 USD at the end of the month) might come with a per-contract price tag of $0.98.

By contract, a huge “underdog” (such as choosing that Bitcoin will be priced at a minimum of $250,000 USD at the end of the month) might be available for as little as $0.02 per contract.

The thing to keep in mind about prediction market contracts is that they all exchange for exactly one dollar if they are successful. Each contract costs between 1 and 99 cents and is redeemed for $1 if it pays out.

Prediction markets started out in the fields of by global affairs, financial statistics, and political outcomes, but have quickly pivoted to sports events, which now make up over 90% of the total contract volume.

The regulatory environment for prediction markets in the US

Both Kalshi and Robinhood operate nationwide within the regulatory infrastructure of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Both platforms claim that they are available nationwide thanks to their compliance with the federal regulatory framework that designates them as an authorized Futures Commission Merchant (Robinhood) or Designated Contract Market (DCM).

However, a number of states have become increasingly skeptical that federal oversight exempts these companies (and other prediction market platforms) from separate, state-derived regulatory structures and tax collection entities.

The states that are currently challenging the legal status of Kalshi and Robinhood in their respective jurisdictions argue that prediction markets should be regulated similarly to online and retail sports betting.

Prediction market platforms, for their part, argue that sports betting doesn’t have any federal legalization framework behind it, which makes state-based regulation necessary, while prediction markets are formally regulated by the US CFTC and are not subject to state regulation.

The ongoing friction between multiple states and sites like Robinhood and Kalshi could eventually mean that these platforms withdraw their services from select jurisdictions.

These days, challenges, rulings, and temporary injunctions are evolving on a daily basis. Be sure to check out our InGame prediction market live blog for the latest on everything related to prediction market regulation.

For now, the friction mostly revolves around sports-related outcomes that prediction markets make available to their customers, but this could change to include more prediction categories in the future.

Kalshi pros and cons

Kalshi is a highly specialized Designated Contract Market (DCM) platform that offers its data-driven tools to millions of users each day.

Overall, more than $1 billion in total trades take place on the Kalshi platform each week, and that number is consistently increasing as prediction markets capture the imagination of new users.

Kalshi has massive player liquidity, which in turn results in an extremely broad range of markets for customers who want to trade on even the most niche events.

Robinhood pros and cons

Robinhood is a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) that facilitates a lot of the actual Kalshi trading within its own platform. 

By some estimates, Robinhood accounts for roughly half of Kalshi’s overall trading, which can eclipse $300 million in a single day when high-profile events are in the mainstream spotlight.

The Robinhood app boasts a user interface that is far more streamlined than Kalshi. New traders will likely prefer Robinhood over Kalshi for this reason alone, as it has fewer options for new customers to learn.

At some point, Robinhood is expected to flesh out its own competing product to capture more of the market share it is currently facilitating in a pseudo-partnership with Kalshi. This may not happen until there is more clarity along with definitive rulings related to ongoing state challenges to its legality, though.

Kalshi vs. Robinhood available sports

The available sports and contract types available for Kalshi versus Robinhood result in new customers choosing Kalshi as their very first platform.

This is because Kalshi, by all measurements, blows Robinhood away in terms of prediction market variety.

Want to trade on a sports event outcome? Kalshi has you covered.

Want to see what the “whole world” thinks will happen in the upcoming election? Go to Kalshi.

Want to make a lot of trades in real time as the odds for a current event in progress shift? Kalshi’s high volume makes this possible. In essence, Kalshi has more options than any other prediction market platform due to its huge customer base.

Here are the markets that are currently available on the Kalshi app:

Robinhood vs. Kalshi platform fees

Kalshi charges a 2% “flat rate” commission on all debit card deposits and withdrawals. If you want to avoid these fees, you can use ACH transfers by linking your personal checking or savings account using Trustly.

Kalshi’s per-contract fees can vary drastically, depending on the type of trade you’re making (buy vs. sell) as well as the contract price itself. As a general guideline, Kalshi charges anywhere between $0.07 to $1.75 per 100 contracts, but as I stated, the minimum and maximum can change depending on several factors.

Robinhood fees tend to be subscription-based or in adherence to FINRA regulations linked to stock market trading. For prediction markets, most Robinhood trades will result in a total $0.02 per-contract fee.

Kalshi vs. Robinhood: which one is right for you?

If you’re looking to participate in stock market trading in a more “conventional” manner, then you’ll need to sign up for an account with Robinhood.

You won’t necessarily get 24/7 trading availability with Robinhood, but it’s the go-to destination for traditional investing.

You can even use the platform to participate in prediction markets that are powered by Kalshi, and track them as your trades evolve.

If you’d rather “wheel and deal” on a wide variety of market outcomes in real time (or even while sports events are in progress), you’ll enjoy the high player volume that Kalshi offers.

Of course, many customers have accounts on both platforms, so that is also an option if you’re finding it difficult to choose between the two.

Conclusion

As long as Kalshi and Robinhood can avoid severe restrictions on their services due to state-based legal challenges, both platforms offer a positive experience and trading options for thousands of future events.

Even if one or more of the pending state legal challenges mandate that the platforms remove sports-only events, that would still significantly impact the overall prediction market products that each app currently offers (Kalshi) or wants to offer in the future (Robinhood).

Regardless of what happens in the future, if you’re ready to get in on the action, you can sign up now for a first-time Kalshi or Robinhood account and start trading today.