Robinhood’s in-house prediction market Rothera may still have plenty of room to grow, as InGame estimates suggest that Robinhood is still sending more than a billion dollars of volume per week — or about 60% of total Robinhood prediction market volume — to Kalshi.
Virtually all the rest of that volume, mostly World Cup straight bets, goes to Rothera. But if all Robinhood activity went to the in-house exchange, Rothera could exceed $300 million per day in volume.
Robinhood launches in-house exchange
Robinhood co-owns Rothera, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market (DCM), or exchange. Robinhood is also registered as a futures commission merchant (FCM), meaning that it can direct its customers to other exchanges.
Initially, Robinhood operated only as an FCM, mostly directing its customers to Kalshi and occasionally ForecastEx, but in November it announced plans to launch its own exchange. Rothera launched at the end of May.
Even without being an exchange, Robinhood was effectively the market leader in prediction markets less than a year ago, as it was responsible for 60% of volume on Kalshi. However, growth of prediction markets on Robinhood slowed in late 2025 and the first few months of 2026 while “direct” volume on Kalshi soared. By March, Robinhood was less than 25% of Kalshi’s volume. While Kalshi has continued to grow rapidly since then, Robinhood’s prediction market activity appears to be growing too.
In May, just before the Rothera launch, Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma said that while the business would keep offering some access to other exchanges, he expected the stock trading app to migrate virtually all its flow to its in-house exchange “in the short to medium term.”
Robinhood firehose not fully pointed at Rothera
Rothera has reported upward of $120 million of volume per day since the start of the World Cup. That suggests the prediction market is on course for more than $3 billion in a month, which would be roughly the trading volume that Robinhood processed before Rothera launched.
Yet that does not mean that close to all activity from Robinhood is now directed toward Rothera. Volume on Rothera is almost entirely on World Cup straight bets, with a smaller tail of volume coming from one Major League Baseball game per day, some Wimbledon markets, and certain economic contracts. For all other bets, including parlays, Robinhood still typically directs users to Kalshi. A small sliver of Robinhood volume, mostly on weather contracts, goes to ForecastEx.
Using Robinhood’s daily FCM segregated funds disclosures, InGame estimated Robinhood’s total volume. Since June 15, when volume on Rothera truly ramped up and hit $100 million for the first time, InGame’s projection estimates Robinhood’s total volume was $6.2 billion.
Of this total, $2.6 billion, or 40%, came from Rothera. That means that the other 60%, or more than $150 million per day, is still directed toward Kalshi.
Where does Robinhood rank in market share?
If Rothera were to get all of that volume, absent any other changes, it would leapfrog Polymarket US and become the second-biggest U.S.-regulated prediction market.
If all that volume moved to Rothera and Kalshi didn’t grow further, Rothera would average about one quarter of Kalshi’s daily volume.
The estimates show Robinhood still represents around 12% of Kalshi’s volume. That could suggest that when those users are ultimately directed toward Rothera as well, Kalshi takes a hit.
However, Kalshi’s recent growth has been so rapid that such a hit may go unnoticed. Over the last week, Kalshi has averaged more than $1.6 billion per day in volume, more than triple its volume figures at the start of June. That surge came despite Robinhood’s World Cup trades going through Rothera. Even if no Robinhood trades went through Kalshi at all, Kalshi would still be processing close to $10 billion in weekly volume.
Third-party exchange volume has low costs
The volume that flows through Kalshi is lucrative for Robinhood. The stock trading app charges a one-cent fee on every one-dollar prediction market contract traded, on top of the fee charged by Kalshi (which varies depending on the price of the contract, but works out as about one cent per contract on average too).
Yet because it doesn’t have to run the exchange infrastructure for Kalshi, a large portion of the trading fees Robinhood makes on Kalshi contracts go straight to the company’s bottom line.
Analysis from Sporttrade CEO Alexander Kane and COO David Huffman on their Buy Low Sell High Substack estimated that almost 95% of Robinhood’s gross revenue from sports event contracts would flow through to gross profit.
If 3.6 billion Kalshi event contracts at one dollar each were traded on Robinhood in a little over three weeks, that would make the business $36 million in revenue, or put it on pace for $50 million in revenue in a month, with minimal overhead costs. Robinhood will report its second-quarter financial results on July 29.
