Kalshi parlay takers have now lost more than $1 billion since the feature launched last year, after a huge surge in popularity this football season, an InGame analysis shows.
Since parlays first became available in September 2025, Kalshi’s total volume on multi-leg trades has been $165.6 billion. Taker stakes — the closest equivalent to sportsbook handle — are $7.1 billion, and takers have lost $1.004 billion.
Slightly lower volume weekend
Parlay activity over the weekend was down from the previous week’s record highs. After falling just a few hundred dollars short of the $4 billion mark on Oct. 24, parlay volume on Oct. 31 dipped to $3.55 billion. On Sunday, parlay volume was $3.38 billion, slightly below the previous Sunday.
Because parlays make up such a large share of overall volume, the weekend was also a decline in total volume terms across all categories, ending a streak of eight record weekends in a row.
However, the impact of parlays on overall volume can be misleading. Kalshi’s volume includes both the taker and maker side of a trade, and for parlays market makers are overwhelmingly professional or institutional traders, as parlay market making is not available on the Kalshi app or website. Because parlays are often at very long odds, a taker might stake $1 on a trade that could have volume of as much as $10,000.
The majority of Kalshi’s total volume on Saturday, at $2.39 billion, came from parlays with odds of 2% or less and eight or more legs, but takers staked only $5.5 million on these trades.
Looking only at taker-side volume, last weekend was yet another record for Kalshi, with Sunday setting a new high at $1.04 billion.
In addition, taker stakes on parlays were close to flat week-on-week, meaning that the higher volume the previous week was mostly just due to takers placing trades at longer odds.
Parlay losses hit $1 billion
Saturday and Sunday were both better-than-normal days for Kalshi’s parlay takers, in terms of the percentage of stakes that were lost. However, takers still lost more than $17 million across the two days combined, after staking close to $200 million.
That was enough to push Kalshi’s cumulative parlay taker losses since the product launched beyond the $1 billion mark.
Before fees, Kalshi’s taker losses are $608.9 million. Parlay takers then paid a further $400 million in fees to hit the $1 billion mark.
Kalshi’s parlay taker losses would still be under $900 million if not for cash-outs. Parlay trades where the taker takes the “no” side are typically due to a previous position being cashed out. Had all cash-outs been held to settlement, taker losses would be just short of $862 million. However, takers lost an additional $141.8 million on cash-out trades.
Parlay takers losing more than they win is far from unique to Kalshi. Takers on Polymarket US and DKeX -- the next two largest exchanges for parlay volume -- have lost a higher portion of their stakes since those platforms launched parlays than users on Kalshi.
Parlays aren't generally considered good bets on traditional sportsbooks, either, with operators often winning up to 20%, as compared to about 10% for other kinds of bets.
Parlays accelerated this fall
Almost half of the taker losses have come in eight weeks since the 2026 NFL season kicked off, a sign of how quickly parlays have grown on Kalshi this fall.
Despite launching initially as a test in early September 2025, and then later for all mobile users at the end of that month, parlay takeup on Kalshi was relatively low in 2025 and early 2026. As a result, parlay losses did not top $20 million until January 2026, and didn’t reach $100 million until April 2026.
For much of 2025 and 2026, daily profit and loss on parlays would swing wildly, with takers sometimes experiencing big single-day profits, but also taking especially large single-day losses.
However, as the products became more popular -- and parlays with more legs became more popular, ensuring that volume was spread out between a wider range of combinations -- taker returns have become more steady. Single-day parlay taker returns typically fluctuate between 5% and 25% losses.
While big losses in percentage terms have become more rare, so have winning days for parlay takers. Only once in the last 40 days, on Oct. 21, have parlay takers made a profit for the day. On that day, a 10-leg parlay of NBA point spreads, which was recommended to users, hit. The parlay attracted 18,744 trades at average odds of 0.2%.
Market makers win big
While parlays have been loss-making for takers, the other side of the trade has been much more successful. Market makers made $608.9 million on parlays before fees, because every dollar lost by takers before fees is one by a market maker, and vice versa.
Until August, market making on parlays on Kalshi did not carry any fees. However, on Aug. 20, Kalshi introduced parlay maker fees. Since then, Kalshi has made $88.9 million in parlay maker fees, meaning that parlay market makers’ profit after fees has been $519.8 million.
Parlay market makers have continued to be profitable after fees once fees were introduced.
Same-game and multi-game parlays lose
Taker losses on parlays have been high for both same-game and multi-game combinations. Multi-game parlay losses have been higher during football season, thanks in part to parlays with eight or more legs at extremely long odds, where the odds of all the legs hitting gets detached from any relationship to real probability.
Kalshi takers have lost $579.5 million on non-correlated parlays, which includes most multi-game parlays. That compares to $424.6 million on correlated parlays, consisting of same-game parlays and some multi-game parlays where the same team is involved in multiple legs.
Losses as a percentage of stakes have generally been highest at the longest odds. Users betting on parlays priced at under 0.1% have staked $15.7 million, and lost $13.3 million of it.
Historically, virtually all parlays on Kalshi are sports, though non-sports parlays have grown after Kalshi added politics parlays last month as the midterm election approaches. In October, volume on non-sports or mixed parlays was about 1% of Kalshi’s $57 billion in total parlay volume. During the month, fully non-sports parlay volume was $356.9 million, while mixed parlay volume was $259.6 million.
Taker losses across all trades near $4b
Overall on Kalshi, across all trade types, takers have lost $3.81 billion since the platform launched.
Unlike with parlays, the majority of taker losses on non-parlay trades are simply due to Kalshi’s fees.
Across all types of trade, Kalshi parlay takers lost $1.52 billion before fees, and paid fees worth $2.3 billion.
The last profitable day for Kalshi takers after fees was Oct. 11, when takers made a profit of $124,000.
For non-parlay trades, web and mobile users are typically able to act as the market maker. Takers are likely to be mostly recreational users, and makers to be mostly professional or institutional, but there are exceptions.
Market makers have paid an additional $280 million in fees. This does not account for fee rebates or other market maker incentives, which cannot be calculated from Kalshi’s public data.
After fees, Kalshi market markers’ lifetime profit is $1.24 billion.
